War

Dunno WTF is going on here, but if he did, he's a dead man, it could be an intelligence operation by the Ukrainians.

Meanwhile Zel is in the UK collecting more military aid. Russia is fucked, everybody realizes it even the Russians.

Zelenskiy fights and wins on his battlefield, now let's see if his generals can win on theirs. He's done about as much as any president can do for his country IMHO and obtained the maximum amount of aid, allies and international support. He has a unified government at his back with a single purpose and it includes the opposition parties too. Most importantly he has the vast majority of the country and its army at his back too, I think his generals believe he is doing the best possible job.

Then keep them busy internally trying to keep the empire together. Not many of them appear to want to fight for fascism or imperialism, talk is cheap. It would be the veterans who fuel such movements, those with real grievances and resentments after a defeat in war caused by incompetence and corruption at the highest levels.

Russia has never been noted for its fair trials and accusations treason often result in bullet to the back of a head with no trial. His fighters who refused to fight were never given a trial, just sledgehammered. He is responsible for the murder, beheading and castration of Ukrainian POWs as well as the murder of civilians including children. If he fell into Ukrainian hands, he would be lucky to see the rear much less The Hague. It does not look like he will be alive much longer and the Russian army might not let him leave the front or will kill him themselves. The world would be better off without the POS.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Then keep them busy internally trying to keep the empire together. Not many of them appear to want to fight for fascism or imperialism, talk is cheap. It would be the veterans who fuel such movements, those with real grievances and resentments after a defeat in war caused by incompetence and corruption at the highest levels.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1658094244920270848

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this is why we won't be able to lift sanctions, even when the russians finally withdraw from Ukraine. They can't be trusted not to rearm and come straight the fuck back. They have to be crushed financially so thoroughly that they won't have a ruble to spare for aggression for decades.

The solution is obvious, though not as simple as some in the EU pretend it is. If Ukraine joins EU and more specifically the Euro, Germany won’t want Ukraine’s national debt to be so high it risks Euro stability and interest rates other member states pay. Traumatized by their own history, Germany fears inflation and an unstable Euro far more than Russian aggression.

“This “inner core” of the original Marshall Plan wrote off Germany’s post-1933 debts and enabled West Germany to start off with a debt-to-GDP-ratio of under 20 percent, following the London Debt Agreement of 1953.”

From which they still benefit today. In EU, a low national debt translates to power/influence over those with higher debts. EU will make sure Ukraine is in debt to EU before it will ever really allow Ukraine to join.

Sativied said:

The EU is leading Ukraine into a sovereign debt crisis

Brave and economically ravaged Ukraine needs a debt deal to win the coming peace — and grants rather than loans.

www.politico.eu

The solution is obvious, though not as simple as some in the EU pretend it is. If Ukraine joins EU and more specifically the Euro, Germany won’t want Ukraine’s national debt to be so high it risks Euro stability and interest rates other member states pay. Traumatized by their own history, Germany fears inflation and an unstable Euro far more than Russian aggression.

“This “inner core” of the original Marshall Plan wrote off Germany’s post-1933 debts and enabled West Germany to start off with a debt-to-GDP-ratio of under 20 percent, following the London Debt Agreement of 1953.”

From which they still benefit today. In EU, a low national debt translates to power/influence over those with higher debts. EU will make sure Ukraine is in debt to EU before it will ever really allow Ukraine to join.

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with any luck at all, seized oligarch money and assets will pay a large portion of those debts.
That's quite the fucking trick..."We won't just give you what you need to defend US as well as yourselves, but we'll loan you what you need to defend US as well as yourselves, at an attractive interest rate." That's just a fucking shitty attitude, and a shitty way to treat a country that is sacrificing a whole generation to keep the rest of Europe safe from a nation of homicidal empire builders.

Roger A. Shrubber said:

with any luck at all, seiazed oligarch money and assets will pay a large portion of those debts.
That's quite the fucking trick..."We won't just give you what you need to defend US as well as yourselves, but we'll loan you what you need to defend US as well as yourselves, at an attractive interest rate." That's just a fucking shitty attitude, and a shitty way to treat a country that is sacrificing a whole generation to keep the rest of Europe safe from a nation of homicidal empire builders.

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While it’s an attractive idea, the execution is a major challenge. To permanently seize frozen assets from private individuals they have to prove they were profits from criminal activities (which of course they are but proving something that happened in Russia is another thing), or change the international laws, which EU and also Biden administration isn’t enthusiastic about. If it happens, it’ll be needed for reconstruction, not debts.

It’s not about the money used for military defense though, it’s money used to prevent Ukraine’s economy from collapsing entirely. In a way, they treat Ukraine as an EU member, if you need money to keep your economy afloat, the EU will provide in exchange for demanding reforms aimed at improving and stabilizing the economy.

Aside from people in a few states near Ukraine, some politicians and north americans, hardly anyone here subscribes to the idea Ukraine is defending the rest of Europe or even keeping it safe. EU has a far larger population, defense budget and gdp than Russia. It’s just rhetoric to keep support high. If Russia were to attack a NATO member Russia would be decimated. The main real threat is Russia’s nukes and not even the brave Ukrainians can stop those.

Sativied said:

While it’s an attractive idea, the execution is a major challenge. To permanently seize frozen assets from private individuals they have to prove they were profits from criminal activities (which of course they are but proving something that happened in Russia is another thing), or change the international laws, which EU and also Biden administration isn’t enthusiastic about. If it happens, it’ll be needed for reconstruction, not debts.

It’s not about the money used for military defense though, it’s money used to prevent Ukraine’s economy from collapsing entirely. In a way, they treat Ukraine as an EU member, if you need money to keep your economy afloat, the EU will provide in exchange for demanding reforms aimed at improving and stabilizing the economy.

Aside from people in a few states near Ukraine, some politicians and north americans, hardly anyone here subscribes to the idea Ukraine is defending the rest of Europe or even keeping it safe. EU has a far larger population, defense budget and gdp than Russia. It’s just rhetoric to keep support high. If Russia were to attack a NATO member Russia would be decimated. The main real threat is Russia’s nukes and not even the brave Ukrainians can stop those.

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I pretty much agree with the idea that this war is not about defending Europe from Russian territorial aggression. Not sure exactly what Europe's reasons are for helping Ukraine. From the US's perspective, Russia, with its nukes and Putin's frequent reference to using them, is an existential threat. Ukraine has its own reasons for fighting against Russian territorial expansion so the US isn't "using" Ukraine but helping Ukraine for its own reasons. The US's aid to Ukraine degrades Russia's economy and military. It's possible that this will lead to an end of Putin, though his successor may not be any better wrt policies toward the US. As a bonus, after sanctions that makes Russia's prosecution of war against Ukraine made bank transfers out of Russia difficult, Putin's campaign to erode democracy and elevate right wing authoritarian government seems to be losing ground.




Joining Shelby were Sens. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), John Kennedy (R-La.), Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and John Thune (R-S.D.), and Rep. Kay Granger (R-Tex.).

The point of their visit, Shelby stressed to the Duma leader, was to “strive for a better relationship” with Moscow, not “accuse Russia of this or that or so forth.”

A lot of money was going into Republican campaigns in those golden days of loose oligarch money.

a cautionary reminder: it’s not all about ground forces. The air force and navy are essentially intact, and no space asset has been degraded.

cannabineer said:

a cautionary reminder: it’s not all about ground forces. The air force and navy are essentially intact, and no space asset has been degraded.

Russia's "eroded" ground forces have run into "big problems"—U.S. general

"They've lost a lot of people, they've lost a lot of equipment," General Christopher G. Cavoli told the Lennart Meri Conference.

www.newsweek.com

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True and I'm sure Russia is ready for air operations against a Ukraine counter offensive. But also too, Ukraine is ready for that. A few days ago, four aircraft were shot down in one day. Coincidence? Friendly fire? Ukraine military testing readiness to protect forces on the ground?

But Russian air force and navy "essentially intact"?. What intact means is up for debate. It was during the early days of this war that Russian air capabilities were shown to be already degraded by its own corruption. Pilots were using handheld GPS units to find targets because the jets own navigation systems were old and outdated. Also, how in hell was the Russian flagship downed so easily?


This article was written during the early days of the war, when Russia thought it could win in days or weeks. It could be that they didn't want to commit their best but to me that doesn't make sense. It could also be that this was their best. Which means what's in reserve is worse.

I'm just speculating and am frequently wrong when I do that. Still though, wtf, Russia? If they are a top notch military, where are the top notch capabilitie?.

Fogdog said:

True and I'm sure Russia is ready for air operations against a Ukraine counter offensive. But also too, Ukraine is ready for that. A few days ago, four aircraft were shot down in one day. Coincidence? Friendly fire? Ukraine military testing readiness to protect forces on the ground?

But Russian air force and navy "essentially intact"?. What intact means is up for debate. It was during the early days of this war that Russian air capabilities were shown to be already degraded by its own corruption. Pilots were using handheld GPS units to find targets because the jets own navigation systems were old and outdated. Also, how in hell was the Russian flagship downed so easily?

Downed Russian fighter jets are being found with basic GPS 'taped to the dashboards,' UK defense minister says

As the invasion of Ukraine drags on, evidence is emerging that much of Russia's military equipment is outdated and often ineffective.

www.businessinsider.com

This article was written during the early days of the war, when Russia thought it could win in days or weeks. It could be that they didn't want to commit their best but to me that doesn't make sense. It could also be that this was their best. Which means what's in reserve is worse.

I'm just speculating and am frequently wrong when I do that. Still though, wtf, Russia? If they are a top notch military, where are the top notch capabilitie?.

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to the first question.....from my sluething....all 4 of those aircraft were shot down by friendly fire.......all over the Bryansk Region...nothing like a bunch of drunks with an anti-air system.....

to the second question about the ship....earlier in the war the UA was given anti ship missiles from the Brits they retro fitted them to a truck firing system which makes them mobile, the russians at the time blew it off like it was bull......welp come to find out they did have them by the time everything was setup all they had to do was wait.....then boom, 2 missiles to the side and down she goes......

and the end of your thought....everyone thought the russian had one of the best military machines around, after the cold war had stopped they became the most prolific arms dealers in the world, second to the US, and they sold everything....on top of them selling everything the biggest corruption imaginable was happening from the top all the way to bottom in the Russian military.....think Russian Mob...needless to say.....look at them now.......if you can find somewhere that is top notch in that military aperadus please show me...call all i see is a bunch of squirrels now, looking for they're nutz.....

Fogdog said:

True and I'm sure Russia is ready for air operations against a Ukraine counter offensive. But also too, Ukraine is ready for that. A few days ago, four aircraft were shot down in one day. Coincidence? Friendly fire? Ukraine military testing readiness to protect forces on the ground?

But Russian air force and navy "essentially intact"?. What intact means is up for debate. It was during the early days of this war that Russian air capabilities were shown to be already degraded by its own corruption. Pilots were using handheld GPS units to find targets because the jets own navigation systems were old and outdated. Also, how in hell was the Russian flagship downed so easily?

Downed Russian fighter jets are being found with basic GPS 'taped to the dashboards,' UK defense minister says

As the invasion of Ukraine drags on, evidence is emerging that much of Russia's military equipment is outdated and often ineffective.

www.businessinsider.com

This article was written during the early days of the war, when Russia thought it could win in days or weeks. It could be that they didn't want to commit their best but to me that doesn't make sense. It could also be that this was their best. Which means what's in reserve is worse.

I'm just speculating and am frequently wrong when I do that. Still though, wtf, Russia? If they are a top notch military, where are the top notch capabilitie?.

Click to expand...

They have been careful with their fixed-wing aircraft after the early days. This is very speculative, but if they put together a large strike, they might lose thirty of two hundred aircraft, but chances are they’ll do real damage to the military and infrastructure targets that artillery and missiles haven’t worked against. That could be a game changer.

Ukraine has some shiny new antiair assets, but I don’t think they can deny the airspace against a big multilevel strike. Their standoff strikes using MiGs and Kinzhal have been fairly successful. But this is all a scientific wild-ass guess.

As for the navy, they scored that one high-value target, but neutralizing the navy will mean taking and holding Sevastopol. That’s still below the planning horizon afaik.

So, if the other services are run as shoddily as the boots-and-treads ground force, I think your analysis is probably solid. But I’m not gonna wager that that is the case until we get more data.

South African army general in Moscow days after country accused of sending weapons to Russia
Russia’s top army general and his South African counterpart discussed “military cooperation” while meeting Monday in Moscow, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

The announcement came hours after South African President Cyril Ramaphosa denied accusations by the United States that his country was siding with Russia in the war in Ukraine and had sent weapons to help it.

Gen. Oleg Salyukov, the commander of Russia’s ground forces, met the chief of South Africa’s army, Lt. Gen. Lawrence Mbatha, at Russia’s general command headquarters in Moscow, the Russian ministry said.

“The sides discussed issues of military cooperation and the implementation of projects geared to enhance the combat readiness of the two countries’ armies,” the ministry said in a statement. “The meeting between the military commanders yielded agreements on the further expansion of cooperation between the land forces in various areas.”

The Defense Ministry said a South African delegation would visit a number of Russian army “educational and training facilities.”

The South African army said the trip was planned well in advance of the U.S. ambassador to South Africa alleging last week that the country had provided weapons to Russia when a ship under U.S. sanctions made a secret stop at a South African naval base in December.

The South African government has denied the Russian cargo ship’s stop involved an official sale of weapons, although it has not categorically ruled out an arms transaction took place.

Ramaphosa has said an investigation was underway to determine if anyone loaded weapons onto the Russian-flagged Lady R cargo ship at the Simon’s Town naval base near Cape Town.

Ramaphosa used his weekly message to the nation Monday to reaffirm South Africa’s non-aligned stance with regard to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The president’s statement was seen as a response to U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety, who questioned South Africa’s neutrality in the Ukraine war while making the allegations about a weapons shipment.

Brigety was subsequently summoned to a meeting with South Africa’s foreign minister.

“We do not accept that our non-aligned position favors Russia above other countries,” Ramaphosa wrote in his weekly message. “Nor do we accept that it should imperil our relations with other countries.”

Ramaphosa added: “We have been firm on this point: South Africa has not been, and will not be, drawn into a contest between global powers.”

He also hinted that Russian President Vladimir Putin would visit South Africa for a meeting of leaders of the BRICS economic bloc in August. The Kremlin has not confirmed that Putin plans to attend the BRICS summit.

Such a trip would entangle South Africa in another diplomatic mess because the country is a signatory to the treaty that created the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March for alleged war crimes involving the abductions of children from Ukraine.

Since the indictment, Putin has traveled rarely, and only to countries that are close allies of Russia. Countries that are parties to the treaty would be obliged to arrest the Russian leader.

While Russia and South Africa both described Monday’s meeting of the countries’ top army generals as part of a normal bilateral trip, it’s bound to increase scrutiny of Africa’s most developed economy, which is seen as an influential nation in the developing world.

South Africa is the only African nation in the BRICS bloc, which also includes Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Aside from the weapons allegations, South Africa also hosted Russian and Chinese warships and took part in naval exercises off its east coast in February that coincided with the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Brigety, the American ambassador, said last week that U.S. officials have “respect for South Africa’s policy of neutrality and non-alignment in international affairs” but had “noted a series of issues which suggest that in practice the government of South Africa is in fact not non-aligned.”

The Associated Press independently verified that the Lady R cargo ship stopped at the South African naval base for at least three days in December, as Brigety claimed. A review of records by the AP also shows that the Lady R is tied to a company that was sanctioned by the U.S. for transporting weapons for the Russian government and aiding its war effort in Ukraine.