War

Roger A. Shrubber said:

this whole "the Ukrainians can't make strikes inside russia" thing is motherfucking bullshit...the fucking russians should be getting what they fucking dish out, it's only fair. they can murder civilians indiscriminately, but the Ukrainians can't use highly precise munitions to strike military targets inside russia's borders? why don't you tie their other hand, let them attack the russians with pitchforks and tractors? fucking politicians make me sick

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They are playing the game and I believe snookering Vlad into thinking he can win something, he went from 65% in Ukraine to 80% and is searching through his scrap heap of tanks and orcs now for old tanks and old farts to fight. The offensive operations won't begin until this summer when more weapons arrive and more men are trained in how to use them. As long as the Russians are attacking they are soaking up casualties in the face of M777s and other artillery that is increasing daily. They have half the army they have in Ukraine concentrated on a very small area in the east where they are making gains.

We will know how this will turn out when the bridge is blown at Kerch, cutting off the Russians in the south and Crimea. I figure they will divide the Russian forces at Mariupol east from south first, then go for the bridge by whatever means they can. I find it hard to believe that they wouldn't have clandestine help with this from some western ally, like Poland or the UK at least.

If Vlad won't let go of Ukraine, they will chop his fucking arms off and let him go running screaming into the wilderness bleeding to death, while pursued by a pack of wolves, hungry for freedom and retribution. The only negotiations will be for the Russian army's withdrawal from all of ukraine, without getting completely wiped out there, but peace is not the objective any more, it is their destruction.
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US secretary of state announces new $700 million drawdown of military assistance for Ukraine
From CNN's Jennifer Hansler



NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, left, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, attend a news conference at the State Department in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, June 1. (Jacquelyn Martin/AP)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday announced a $700 million drawdown in arms and equipment to Ukraine.
This drawdown, the 11th, is part of the $40 billion supplemental appropriations.

"US military assistance will strengthen Ukraine’s position to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, secure victories on the battlefield, and ultimately strengthen Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table," Blinken said in a statement.

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"The Kremlin has succeeded only in devastating communities, brutalizing civilians, disrupting Ukraine’s agriculture, and threatening global food security by blocking Ukrainian ports. The will of Ukraine’s courageous forces to defend their country is admirable, and Ukraine has shown it will never be subjugated to Russia," Blinken added.
Blinken ended his statement by vowing that the US and its allies "will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes."

DIY-HP-LED said:

We will know how this will turn out when the bridge is blown at Kerch, cutting off the Russians in the south and Crimea. I figure they will divide the Russian forces at Mariupol east from south first, then go for the bridge by whatever means they can. I find it hard to believe that they wouldn't have clandestine help with this from some western ally, like Poland or the UK at least.

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How exactly do you think that will be successful with an occupying force that looks like this:

I see some merit to standing up to the nuclear threat. Vladolf is blackmailing the West with that threat.

Not sure how to respond if Mad Vlad decides to prove he means it. I would go after every single naval asset, especially the submarines. I want the nuclear subsurface fleet gone, especially the boats that carry Poseidon. That drone sub carries a massive thermonuke that is rumored to be as much as 100 Mt in yield. It possibly contains cobalt-thorium G. It is a weapon of greatest spite.

I think we need to make it absolutely clear to Russian leadership that if they deploy one of their three big ones, we will lay absolute waste to Russia without hesitation, respite or remorse.

If they use a tactical nuke, I’m thinking that is our permission to send in NATO air to systematically use our conventional capabilities to scrub every airfield and kill all aircraft. It also seems like it would be time to give our antisatellite capabilities a good workout.

But if they use a strategic weapon, we send in the B-2s and nuke every military production asset. If they don’t get the hint, we go unrestricted.

But this nuclear blackmail business must be ssomewhat bravely addressed. We must not be afraid to establish air supremacy over Ukraine and a no-fly zone over adjacent Russia.

It can be argued that interdicting the grain shipments is equivalent to using wmd on civilian area targets. A conventional first strike against the entire blockade fleet is justified. The presentation of an existential threat cuts both ways, and it might be useful to communicate this to Russian command.

Poseidon is the ultra-menace missile.

PJ Diaz said:

How exactly do you think that will be successful with an occupying force that looks like this:

View attachment 5142678

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PJ gotta realize that putin at this moment is all in now, basically all BTG are in, most now are disfunctional with no leadership, 25% of the force is in Axium right now and are also being cut off...so as the day keeps going, and the more his troops are bogged down, KIA, and POW. 31k in loses, 3x times that prolly wounded, and with decention in the rank in Moscow itself...it's not looking good....time will tell overall

PJ Diaz said:

How exactly do you think that will be successful with an occupying force that looks like this:

View attachment 5142678

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Well, it's not how the map looks today that is important, at this point territory is of secondary importance, wearing down the Russians and destroying the BTGs is the most important thing at this point. Half their forces are concentrate in the east where they are making gains in a small area while soaking up casualties at the usual rate of 3:1, but that is for an army that knows what the fuck they are doing and can use maneuver, they can't it seems.

They are spread pretty thin around most areas of the country and when they are worn down enough to hide behind defensive positions in the east, the Ukrainians will attack to the south cutting them off and forcing them out from behind their defenses in the east to intervene, I figure. They will begin the real offensive phase this summer, after the Russians are worn down more and more modern arms arrive.

The numbers are with the Ukrainians they have many more men than the Russians at arms and a large waiting list of volunteers for their army and reserves. They have more modern arms pouring in and are training even more men in their use. The Russians are recruiting old men and the dregs of society while running out of tanks and logistical support vehicles, they are bringing in junk T62 death trap tanks now. Vlad is going through his scrap heap of old tanks and orcs, winning sides don't enlist old men and resurrect museum pieces to fight in a war.

Estimates as of today? 1000 troops a week KIA

More sabre rattling ….

While some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target.

On the state TV show 60 Minutes, host Olga Skabeeva announced: “I have some unpleasant news... Even though we are methodically destroying the weapons that are being delivered [to Ukraine], but the quantities in which the United States are sending them force us to come up with some global conclusions. Perhaps it’s time to acknowledge that maybe Russia’s special operation in Ukraine has come to an end, in a sense that a real war had started: WWIII. We’re forced to conduct the demilitarization not only of Ukraine, but of the entire NATO alliance.”

War on a shoestring in fear of Vlad's wrath. However Vlad thinks in terms of tanks and artillery and forgets things like military and cheap commercial drones are wearing his army down every day and night as much as the artillery is, which it greatly assists, every gun has it's drone unit nearby calling the shots. Ok you don't want them used against Russia, but FOUR miserable systems, how about 400? Perhaps allies are sending some too and not talking? Perhaps we see how these work and get Vlad used to the idea of having his asshole stretched slowly. These things must be pretty fucking good for precision strikes I guess, they will keep the Russian commander's HQ 50 miles back. They can destroy the Russians fuel and ammo supplies to their fronts one BTG at a time, cause the drones will be circling their AO like fucking buzzards, looking for targets to interdict, or senior officers to snuff, almost forty miles back from the reach of their artillery. Hope Joe sends lot's of rockets for them and they don't get snuffed by desperate airstrikes by the Russians.

They are also getting more artillery systems from a variety of sources every day and much of the focus has been on the MLRS. Eastern Poland probably looks like a supply dump for Ukraine now.
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The United States decided to send Ukraine four HIMARS systems, or high mobility artillery rocket systems, with about 70 kilometers (about 43 miles) range instead of a target with a longer range as Ukrainians had requested, Kahl told reporters at a briefing at the Pentagon Wednesday.

“As we looked at the targets that they were looking to be able to go after on Ukrainian territory and have some additional standoff, we thought the HIMARS with the GMLRS rounds — these guided long-range rounds with about 70km range could service any target that they needed precisely — so we settled on the HIMARS with the GMLRS round as the appropriate round at this time,” Kahl said.

interesting....South Ossetia...what are ya planning.....

Budzbuddha said:

More sabre rattling ….

While some in the West are pondering what kind of a concessions would allow Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin “to save face” in Ukraine, leading Russian lawmakers and top propagandists are advocating smashing the West, which they say is Russia’s ultimate target.

On the state TV show 60 Minutes, host Olga Skabeeva announced: “I have some unpleasant news... Even though we are methodically destroying the weapons that are being delivered [to Ukraine], but the quantities in which the United States are sending them force us to come up with some global conclusions. Perhaps it’s time to acknowledge that maybe Russia’s special operation in Ukraine has come to an end, in a sense that a real war had started: WWIII. We’re forced to conduct the demilitarization not only of Ukraine, but of the entire NATO alliance.”

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Blow hard TV for internal consumption, reminds me of Bagdad Bob.

DIY-HP-LED said:

Half their forces are concentrate in the east where they are making gains in a small area while soaking up casualties at the usual rate of 3:1, but that is for an army that knows what the fuck they are doing and can use maneuver, they can't it seems.

They are spread pretty thin around most areas of the country and when they are worn down enough to hide behind defensive positions in the east, the Ukrainians will attack to the south cutting them off and forcing them out from behind their defenses in the east to intervene, I figure. They will begin the real offensive phase this summer, after the Russians are worn down more and more modern arms arrive.

The numbers are with the Ukrainians they have many more men than the Russians at arms and a large waiting list of volunteers for their army and reserves. They have more modern arms pouring in and are training even more men in their use. The Russians are recruiting old men and the dregs of society while running out of tanks and logistical support vehicles, they are bringing in junk T62 death trap tanks now. Vlad is going through his scrap heap of old tanks and orcs, winning sides don't enlist old men and resurrect museum pieces to fight in a war.

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How do you know the Russians are dying at three times the rate as the Ukrainians? Oh right, it is common wisdom. Mind you that also assumes two equally outfitted armies. The Russians have much more firepower shooting at the Ukrainians. Yes they are spread thinly around the country where they are not defending against attacks. That is why they can concentrate their forces now, why they withdrew from the north and finished up in Mariupol. The Ukrainians also have defensive positions to hid behind. Normal military behavour. How much more men do the Ukrainians have? You don't know. And a man in a gun fight with a knife is not all that successful.

Oh right, I forgot.

Rah, rah.

BudmanTX said:

interesting....South Ossetia...what are ya planning.....

Georgia’s South Ossetia cancels referendum on joining Russia

The breakaway region’s new de facto president ditches his predecessor’s plan to hold the vote on July 17.

www.aljazeera.com

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"Oh shoot, Moscow is not looking too good now, we may end up a part of Nato. Better hedge my bets."

printer said:

How do you know the Russians are dying at three times the rate as the Ukrainians? Oh right, it is common wisdom. Mind you that also assumes two equally outfitted armies. The Russians have much more firepower shooting at the Ukrainians. Yes they are spread thinly around the country where they are not defending against attacks. That is why they can concentrate their forces now, why they withdrew from the north and finished up in Mariupol. The Ukrainians also have defensive positions to hid behind. Normal military behavour. How much more men do the Ukrainians have? You don't know. And a man in a gun fight with a knife is not all that successful.

Oh right, I forgot.

Rah, rah.

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How many men the Ukrainians have is a military secret, however 7 years of low level war in the east has left them with over 400,000 men in total at the beginning of the war, including their regular army. Since the war began they have been training and equipping more regular army battalions because we and others have been giving them thousands of helmets and pieces of body armor to do it, countries like Japan sent 30,000 and someone is using it. They have also expanded the territorials and I'm not sure how many they have. We do have better numbers on the Russian manpower issues though, both in terms lost and in terms of their recruitment efforts.

Yes the Russians have more firepower and they are fighting smarter, having adapted somewhat, now they use infantry to probe and locate defenders for artillery to pound and destroy or they withdraw. They are still attacking however and you always lose more doing that when defending, even from unfortified positions, IED's, land mines and ambushes take their toll, anti tank weapons too, because a lot of the fighting is urban.

My hope is when the Ukrainians go on the offensive they will use maneuver and advanced weapons to minimize their causalities, but they will be attacking then.

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 98

• The United States will send Ukraine the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), equipped with munitions that will allow Ukraine to launch rockets about 80km, but Ukraine will not use the missiles to hit targets on Russian territory, a senior Biden administration official said.
• Russia has taken control of most of the eastern industrial city of Severodonetsk, the Luhansk regional governor said. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Russia’s bombing of Severodonetsk “madness” due to the number of chemical plants in the city.
• Ukrainian forces have had some success near the southern city of Kherson and are advancing in parts of the Kharkiv region, Zelenskyy said.
• Moscow’s focus on seizing Severodonetsk and the Donbas region more generally risks its hold on Kherson, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
• The United Nations human rights body (OHCHR) confirmed 9,029 civilian casualties in Ukraine since February 24, including 4,113 people killed and 4,916 injured.
• Ukraine has identified more than 600 Russian war crime suspects and has started prosecuting about 80 of them, Kyiv’s top prosecutor said.
• The Russian-occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia will become part of Russia, Russian state news agency RIA reported, citing the secretary-general of the United Russia Party’s general council.
• Ukrainian officials reported a “shutdown of all communications” as mobile communication and internet access was blocked in Russian-occupied parts of Kherson.
• Some 60 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed per day in the war with Russia, Zelenskyy said, adding that about 500 are wounded daily.
• Russia’s nuclear forces are holding drills in Ivanovo province, northeast of Moscow, the Interfax news agency cited the Russian defence ministry as saying.
• Ukraine’s parliament dismissed human rights commissioner Lyudmyla Denisova from her post for inadequate performance, the Ukrinform news agency reported.
• A Ukrainian court sentenced two captured Russian soldiers to more than 11 years in jail each for shelling a civilian area in the country’s northeastern Kharkiv region.

Business as usual in Russia.

look nother counter attack along Kherson lines.....they started in Karkiv and headed along the border freed it, now it time for Kherson while most of the BG's are in the east.....

BudmanTX said:

interesting....South Ossetia...what are ya planning.....

Georgia’s South Ossetia cancels referendum on joining Russia

The breakaway region’s new de facto president ditches his predecessor’s plan to hold the vote on July 17.

www.aljazeera.com

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Someone will have Georgia on their mind! Another fire for Vlad to put out and if he gets wiped out in Ukraine he will be fucked in Georgia and I'm betting Belarus too. Unlike Russia, Belarus can go liberal democratic without fear of dissolution and they get a full dose of western broadcast media from three sides. They know what is really happening in Ukraine, particularly the colonels in their army, who are no doubt following the war closely and watching very little Russian state TV, or even their own. Then there are those Belarusians fighting for Ukraine, making contacts, getting training and experience, they could do great things with a little support from a place like Poland. I understand they are well armed, better than most, so someone likes them.

So if Vlad want to be a pain in the arse after he is kicked out of Ukraine, there are plenty of things to keep him and the shattered remains of his army, busy with. More trouble could be made in Siberia, people from there are fighting in Ukraine too, all Vlad's many enemies are gathering there. I'm sure Ukrainian intelligence and the CIA are getting to know many of them.

new stuff coming