War

Friendly_Grower said:
If everyone is paying for the party and Putin doesn't call up a Draft.
We all need to realize that if Putin drops this Special Police Action BS and declares war on Ukraine that it's over for Ukraine.

On the other hand, as far as I can tell the economic sanctions are starting to have an effect.
That effect is possibly limiting Putin's choices.

True True that it will take a few years to get LNG terminals installed in Europe but it is happening so if Putin wants to do his worst short of nuclear the future is less profitable for a lot of Russians with sanctions enforced. That is in my opinion.
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A dictator can use all the resources a nation has to offer in a war and there is no one who can stop him. So, yeah, I guess you are right, he can call up troops and re-fit out of date equipment to make it use-able. He can drag this out by expending yet more blood and treasure.

But I don't think he can win. Not when he's using 60 YO tech against the weapons the West is giving Ukraine. It doesn't matter to Putin, perhaps, if each and every family sacrifices a son to his ambitions. But Ukraine isn't giving an inch to Russia. Eventually, Russians are going to rebel. The end will be messy and I believe will end in a break up of Russia as we know it.
 
Friendly_Grower said:
If everyone is paying for the party and Putin doesn't call up a Draft.
We all need to realize that if Putin drops this Special Police Action BS and declares war on Ukraine that it's over for Ukraine.

On the other hand, as far as I can tell the economic sanctions are starting to have an effect.
That effect is possibly limiting Putin's choices.

True True that it will take a few years to get LNG terminals installed in Europe but it is happening so if Putin wants to do his worst short of nuclear the future is less profitable for a lot of Russians with sanctions enforced. That is in my opinion.
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Why do you think nobody declares war since WW2? There are far more implications to a declaration of war than drafting soldiers for an army that is broken to it's core. The UN has something to say about countries who declare war on another and it can lead to UN intervention, or intervention by other countries, Poland might declare war unilaterally on Russia and have NATO backing FFS. A declaration of war is a very serious thing and one the UN was specifically designed to prevent and it has the mechanisms to do so.

Ukraine has a million men under arms, but it was of little use against Russian artillery and Vlad's future mighty army will carry what it needs on it's back, once they disembark the trains. He can mass an army of cannon fodder, provided he can equip, arm and feed them, but a C130 gunship can slaughter them like cattle as fast as they arrive. What do you think the American reaction to a declaration of war by Russia might be, how about Europe? We can get even more modern arms including aircraft to Ukraine and have them trained, faster than Vlad can raise an army of reluctant soldiers.

A declaration of war would finish Russia not Ukraine, mere numbers mean nothing but potential corpses and prisoners, modern weapons systems make the difference. We have not even given the Ukrainians any air power yet, the Russians have none worth a fuck and airpower can deal with masses of troops on the ground marching very effectively. So it's not a question of them declaring war and they win, not by a long shot, a declaration of war is an escalation that has implications under international law. The only thing it would do for Putin is provide warm bodies it won't provide tanks, ammo or trucks to transport things and it won't feed and house his army either. They are so dependent on the railways that any attack on them would severely disrupt their military and economy. The don't have the road transport to go much beyond a couple of hundred kilometers of their rail heads.
 
Roger A. Shrubber said:
They're non combatants, they won't get traded through the usual channels. If they get traded, it will probably be in exchange for the Ukrainian civilians the russians kidnapped and sent who the fuck knows where.
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As far as I know, most of the Ukrainian civilians taken to Russia were not interned and many are filtering back to the west, they just let them loose inside Russia, like wise for those Russians civilians who want to leave Ukraine. Apparently the Russians won't let the ones it issued passports to in Ukraine, so much for protecting them from nazis! As long as the Russians are holding anybody the sanctions will stay on, even if the war ends. Ukraine arresting and prosecuting those teachers will mean the Russians will take hostages, so it will end up an exchange.
 
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Fogdog said:
A dictator can use all the resources a nation has to offer in a war and there is no one who can stop him. So, yeah, I guess you are right, he can call up troops and re-fit out of date equipment to make it use-able. He can drag this out by expending yet more blood and treasure.

But I don't think he can win. Not when he's using 60 YO tech against the weapons the West is giving Ukraine. It doesn't matter to Putin, perhaps, if each and every family sacrifices a son to his ambitions. But Ukraine isn't giving an inch to Russia. Eventually, Russians are going to rebel. The end will be messy and I believe will end in a break up of Russia as we know it.
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Vlad does not have as tight a lock on power as he would like and the limits of his power are becoming apparent. His reluctance to declare war and call up a draft are among them. What good would it do when they are using obsolete tanks and buying old out of date ammo from North Korea already? His air force is grounded by corruption, lack of spares and lack of training for the pilots and the army has little equipment left. His whole military was one big Pushkin village of corrupt idiots. Remember, Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe and had a minimum of western aid when this war began.
 
This is what liberal democratic leadership looks like, what character looks like. He has an election in 2023 and I don't think he will have any problems, he is like Churchill in leadership, but not in politics. What he wants aligns with what the country wants, western style liberal democracy and EU membership, the war has increased that sentiment dramatically in Ukraine. It forced Vlad to drop the mask and pretense of bullshit democracy and come out as an authoritarian dictator with imperialist ambitions. All is not well in Russia and since they got their asses whipped, it will get a lot worse.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1570028693933948928
 
Yep and Uncle Sam is waiting for Vlad's next move and the appropriate weapons will be delivered to destroy a mass infantry army. A few AC 130 gunships should deal with hoards of Russians pouring across the border and change the minds of a few more. Violence is not the answer Vlad, we will just punch you in the face harder the next time.

I figure the Ukrainians will take a break for a couple of days of sleep, unless they have a fresh reserve to Troops they can throw in to keep the ball rolling while the other guys get some R&R. 4 or 5 days is the normal limit on this kind of advance, the troops breakdown without rest and sleep. However it's not over in the east yet and the Russians could surrender staggering numbers of cut off troops in Kherson along with a lot of equipment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569877368558305280
 
Vlad never wanted peace and no amount of talking would have helped, he wanted to conquer Ukraine with his mighty army and exterminate them as a nation. There is no answer to such violence other than violence, when someone mugs you, saying your a pacifist won't keep them from taking your money, abusing you or even killing you, a swift kick in the nuts might however. Pacifism is as sick as Trumpism, it makes assumptions about other people and their motives that are, untrue, unrealistic and dangerous. Nonviolence only works in the context of a liberal democratic society, sooner or later people in Russia will have to use violence or the threat of it to get rid of Putin before he destroys them. Non violence worked for Gandhi because Briton was a liberal democratic society during his time with the rule of law and Gandhi was a lawyer.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569965542693376000
 
So putin could have had what he wanted without a war, but decided "fuck it, i'm taking it all"...And now it's choking him to death. Good, just cram it further down his throat.
 
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Roger A. Shrubber said:
So putin could have had what he wanted without a war, but decided "fuck it, i'm taking it all"...And now it's choking him to death. Good, just cram it further down his throat.
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cannabineer said:
Why?
Curiosity, not argument.

Stipulating to your premise, how do you think that nuke would be used?
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Bagginski said:
So, you expect the NATO response to NORMALIZE the use of tactical nukes?

Talk about bad precedents…
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I do not think that the West will drop a barrage of nukes for the use of one tactical nuke. That would be irrisposible and may set off events none of us want. I think they might use other means or just toss one to show they mean business. Maybe an out of the way bridge east of Crimea?
 
Roger A. Shrubber said:
So putin could have had what he wanted without a war, but decided "fuck it, i'm taking it all"...And now it's choking him to death. Good, just cram it further down his throat.
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Russia has lot's of vacant land and he should have focused on making his country better, Russia would have been a wealthy well developed country with the oil money coming in and lot's of manufacturing and other industries, but Vlad had to play spy games and indulge his fantasies about the old soviet union where the KGB was king. Well he made the KGB king, those are who are running Russia now, most are ex KGB officers including Vlad and his circle. Same crowd, different ideology, they went from communism directly to a kleptocracy with no stops in between. They were corrupt assholes then and they still are.
 
printer said:
I do not think that the West will drop a barrage of nukes for the use of one tactical nuke. That would be irrisposible and may set off events none of us want. I think they might use other means or just toss one to show they mean business. Maybe an out of the way bridge east of Crimea?
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A conventional weapon could do that and without the risk or fall out, real and political.
 
printer said:
I do not think that the West will drop a barrage of nukes for the use of one tactical nuke. That would be irrisposible and may set off events none of us want. I think they might use other means or just toss one to show they mean business. Maybe an out of the way bridge east of Crimea?
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Taking out the Kerch bridge and giving the Ukrainians the firepower to drive to Mariupol would be an appropriate response. It would cut off the Russians in the south of Ukraine and Crimea, much of his army would be gone along with their equipment, most of which will be turned against him by the Ukrainians. Such large numbers of prisoners would be employed as human shields against further attack by nukes.
 
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