apnews.com
When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched last month a new council for coordinating supplies for the Russian army, he seemed to recognize the scale of the economic problems facing the country, and his sense of urgency was palpable.
“We have to be faster in deciding questions connected to supplying the special military operation and countering restrictions on the economy which, without any exaggeration, are truly unprecedented,” he said.
For months, Putin claimed that the “economic blitzkrieg” against Russia had failed, but Western sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine are digging ever deeper into Russia’s economy, exacerbating equipment shortages for its army and hampering its ability to launch any new ground offensive or build new missiles, economists and Russian business executives said.
Recent figures show the situation has worsened considerably since the summer when, buoyed by a steady stream of oil and gas revenue, the Russian economy seemed to stabilize. Figures released by the Finance Ministry last week show a key economic indicator — tax revenue from the non-oil and gas sector — fell 20 percent in October compared with a year earlier, while the Russian state statistics agency Rosstat reported that retail sales fell 10 percent year on year in September, and cargo turnover fell 7 percent.
“All objective indicators show there is a very strong drop in economic activity,” said Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister who is now a leading opposition politician in exile. “The spiral is escalating, and there is no way out of this now.”
The Western ban on technology imports is affecting most sectors of the economy, while the Kremlin’s forced mobilization of more than 300,000 Russian conscripts to serve in Ukraine, combined with the departure of at least as many abroad fleeing the draft, has dealt a further blow, economists said. In addition, Putin’s own restrictions on gas supplies to Europe, followed by the unexplained explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, has led to a sharp drop in gas production — down 20 percent in October compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, oil sales to Europe are plummeting ahead of the European Union embargo expected to be imposed Dec. 5.
The Kremlin has trumpeted a lower-than-expected decline in GDP, forecast by the International Monetary Fund at only 3.5 percent this year, as demonstrating that the Russian economy can weather the raft of draconian sanctions.
But economists and business executives said the headline GDP figures did not reflect the real state of the Russian economy because the Russian government effectively ended the ruble’s convertibility since the sanctions were imposed. “GDP stopped having any meaning because firstly we don’t know what the real ruble rate is, and secondly if you produce a tank and send it to the front where it is immediately blown up, then it is still considered as value added,” said Milov, who wrote a report explaining the situation for the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies published this month.
Deeper problems were also lurking in the Russian banking sector, where most accounting has been classified. The Russian Central Bank reported this week that a record $14.7 billion in hard currency was withdrawn from the Russian banking system in October, amid increasing anxiety over mobilization and the state of the economy.
Even so, a November report by the Central Bank warned that Russia’s GDP would face a sharper contraction of 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, after falling 4.1 percent and 4 percent compared with last year in the previous two quarters. Last week, as the Russian economy officially entered into recession, Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina told lawmakers that next year the situation could get darker still. “We really need to look at the situation very soberly and with our eyes open. Things may get worse, we understand that,” she said.
Putin’s announcement in September of a partial troop mobilization dealt an enormous blow to business sentiment. “For many Russian companies the reality of the war sank in,” said Janis Kluge, senior associate at the German Institute for Security and International Affairs. “It became clear that this is going to continue for a long time. Now expectations are much worse than they were over the summer.”
Putin’s creation of the coordination council, headed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, was a sign the Russian president is rattled by the increasing impact of sanctions, economists and analysts said. Putin “is concerned he needs to interfere to make sure supplies will be available,” said Sergei Guriev, provost at France’s Sciences Po. “He is concerned that sanctions have really hit the ability to produce goods.”
It also signals the Russian government is preparing a broader mobilization of the Russian economy to supply the army amid chronic shortages of basic goods such as food and uniforms. New laws will impose hefty fines on business executives who refuse to carry out orders for the Russian military, as well as potential prison sentences, clearing the way for entrepreneurs to be pressured into providing goods at knockdown prices. The creation of the council is “connected to big pressure on business and the need to enforce a tough diktat to make business do what it doesn’t want to do,” said Nikolai Petrov, senior research fellow for Russia and Eurasia at Chatham House in London.
One Moscow businessman with connections to the defense sector said a quiet mobilization of the Russian economy had already been long underway, with many entrepreneurs forced into producing supplies for the Russian army but fearing to speak out against orders at cut-price rates.
“This became necessary right from the very beginning when the war began,” the businessman said, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. “The main mass of business is silent. If you say you are making supplies or weapons for the Russian state then you could have problems abroad.”
Anecdotal evidence reported in the Russian press has pointed to enormous problems supplying Russia’s newly drafted conscripts with equipment. An in-depth October report in Russian daily Kommersant described huge shortages in ammunition and uniform supplies for conscripts, with manufacturers citing difficulties securing the necessary materials due to sanctions.
Other Russian business executives said Russia’s military debacle in Ukraine had exposed the huge inefficiencies and corruption in Russia’s military industrial complex. “There are huge questions over where all the trillions of rubles of the past decade have been spent,” said one former senior Russian banker with connections to the Russian state.
If the new economic council fails to better coordinate the production of supplies and weaponry, it could impinge on Russia’s ability to launch new offensives in Ukraine, Petrov said. “The main problem ahead of the Kremlin is the question of when the army will be ready to begin new military action in Ukraine, and the preparation of arms and ammunition and so on will determine these plans.”
The outlook appears likely to worsen when the E.U. embargo on Russian oil sales comes into force Dec. 5, economists said.
Combined with a price cap expected to be imposed on all sales of Russian oil outside the E.U., the measure could cost the Russian budget at least $120 million in lost revenue per day, Milov said, and already the Russian budget is expected to rack up a deficit by the end of this year.
why does that not surprise meSnowden swears allegiance to Russia, receives passport: lawyer
National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden, who received international attention after leaking classified information about U.S. government surveillance programs, has sworn his allegiance to Russia, where he has been living in exile since 2013, state media reported Friday.
Snowden attorney Anatoly Kucherena confirmed the news to the state-run media outlet TASS, saying his client had been granted a Russian passport.
Kucherena said he had seen Snowden the previous day and he was doing well.
Russian President Vladimir Putin granted Snowden citizenship in September; the Russian government had given him permanent residency in 2020. Snowden said at the time that he would work to maintain dual U.S.-Russian citizenship and not renounce his U.S. passport.
Kucherena told TASS that Snowden’s wife, Lindsey Mills, is currently applying for Russian citizenship as well.
Russia’s Interfax news agency reported that Kucherena said Snowden is grateful that he is now a full-fledged citizen. Kucherena said that Snowden can no longer be extradited to a foreign state.
Snowden has been vocally critical about U.S. policies on Twitter but mostly quiet about Russia’s widely denounced invasion of Ukraine this year. He lives in Moscow with Mills and their two children.
Snowden swears allegiance to Russia, receives passport: lawyer
National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden, who received international attention after leaking classified information about U.S. government surveillance programs, has sworn his allegianc…thehill.com
Care to help out on the front lines there comrade?
Either that or back to America, or out a window. I hope he likes potatoes; I'm sure Vlad will find something useful for him to do. I'm sure he has no concerns about Russia conducting surveillance on its own citizens and is in complete agreement with imperial domestic and foreign policy. Russia, Iran and China are the only safe places for this guy now, whatever his intentions were, Vlad turned them to shit pretty quick and he made a sucker and fool of himself. He became a traitor and marked man for the rest of his life.Snowden swears allegiance to Russia, receives passport: lawyer
National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden, who received international attention after leaking classified information about U.S. government surveillance programs, has sworn his allegiance to Russia, where he has been living in exile since 2013, state media reported Friday.
Snowden attorney Anatoly Kucherena confirmed the news to the state-run media outlet TASS, saying his client had been granted a Russian passport.
Kucherena said he had seen Snowden the previous day and he was doing well.
Russian President Vladimir Putin granted Snowden citizenship in September; the Russian government had given him permanent residency in 2020. Snowden said at the time that he would work to maintain dual U.S.-Russian citizenship and not renounce his U.S. passport.
Kucherena told TASS that Snowden’s wife, Lindsey Mills, is currently applying for Russian citizenship as well.
Russia’s Interfax news agency reported that Kucherena said Snowden is grateful that he is now a full-fledged citizen. Kucherena said that Snowden can no longer be extradited to a foreign state.
Snowden has been vocally critical about U.S. policies on Twitter but mostly quiet about Russia’s widely denounced invasion of Ukraine this year. He lives in Moscow with Mills and their two children.
Snowden swears allegiance to Russia, receives passport: lawyer
National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden, who received international attention after leaking classified information about U.S. government surveillance programs, has sworn his allegianc…
Care to help out on the front lines there comrade?
Vlad just needs to get his nuts squeezed harder. Wait for the ground to freeze up, the Ukrainians are winding up for a big punch, maybe in two directions at once. Give him until the new year and let him shoot off the rest of his missiles into the steadily improving air defense system. Winter is here and by the time the Ukrainians roll on the Russians, winter weather and frost bite will take care of many of them. Before the ground freezes enough, the Russians will freeze more. Those poorly equipped untrained conscripts are fit only to put into defensive dug in positions. Once the Ukrainians breakthrough after softening them up with drones and artillery there probably won't be much in the rear to stop them.Russia rejects pullout from Ukraine as condition for talks
Russia has rejected Western demands that it pulls out completely from Ukraine as part of any future talks to end the war, saying they effectively rule out any talks on settling the conflict.
get out or your gonna lose more troops......
I wonder why they have a statue of our anarcho-hominid and another of his posting record.
Took me a second.
apnews.com
I imagine a stealth cruise missile would be on the table too. With good intelligence and precision conventional munitions they might be able to conduct a first strike and take all of their nuclear launch capabilities off the table or degrade them sufficiently that missile defense would be effective for what remained. A good option to have in case the opposing nuked up despot losses his fucking marbles!View attachment 5233212
Pentagon debuts its new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider
The United States' newest nuclear stealth bomber has made its public debut after years of secret development.
View attachment 5233212
Pentagon debuts its new stealth bomber, the B-21 Raider
The United States' newest nuclear stealth bomber has made its public debut after years of secret development.
www.barrons.com
We inherited the world we live in from the past and are part of a process, we have to use the cards we are dealt with, while slowly changing the game. Liberal democracy spread slowly at first but became the model for any country serious about governance and wanting to enter the modern world. It doesn't have to be exactly the same system, but it must be founded on certain principles and democracies exist on spectrum, some are more liberal than others and much depends on their cultural foundations. One man or one-party rule is to be avoided as it inevitably leads to corruption and kleptocracy, we elect our leaders every few years with a free press and speech, imagine how quickly it would go down the toilet of corruption if we didn't! Adam Smith said all that is required for capitalism to work is responsible government, not democracy, however it won't stay responsible for long without liberal democracy.https://apnews.com/article/putin-health-covid-prices-european-union-65de1c4934227208bfa68bb7d4c47716
this is all good, but...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-price-cap-is-dangerous-will-not-curb-demand-our-oil-2022-12-03/
it's all a fucking stupid game that cowards play because they don't have the fucking balls to man up and just go fucking crush russia...
resume hollow posturing in 3...2...1
At $60, the Cap on Oil Prices Will Build Pressure on Russia
Russian oil revenues aren't likely to take a major hit, but it's significant that Western allies have stuck together, Rachel Ziemba writes.
the oil barons aren't too upset, which indicates that this deal doesn't effect the global oil economy, or they would be taking definitive action to protect those obscenely huge profits...
this is the first time in history that the entire world has an enemy of world peace basically at it's mercy, and we're too petrified to smash them...we fucking deserve russia, and all the little russias that we are encouraging right now...as soon as russia gets what it wants out of the world, then it will be south korea's turn to blackmail the fucking cowardly planet with their bombs, then who the fuck else has a bomb? they'll all get on a list to annex the nicest properties of their neighbors, and if we say anything, they'll wave their nuclear bomb club membership cards, and we'll all just back the fuck off...the entire world makes me fucking ashamed to be a part of it's cowardice.
why don't we just reapportion the entire world right now and give 20% of each country adjacent to a military dictatorship that possesses nukes, to the military dictatorships? just save them the trouble of empty posturing that we'll cave to anyway?
Imagine if Russia became another Iraq.https://apnews.com/article/putin-health-covid-prices-european-union-65de1c4934227208bfa68bb7d4c47716
this is all good, but...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-price-cap-is-dangerous-will-not-curb-demand-our-oil-2022-12-03/
it's all a fucking stupid game that cowards play because they don't have the fucking balls to man up and just go fucking crush russia...
resume hollow posturing in 3...2...1
At $60, the Cap on Oil Prices Will Build Pressure on Russia
Russian oil revenues aren't likely to take a major hit, but it's significant that Western allies have stuck together, Rachel Ziemba writes.
the oil barons aren't too upset, which indicates that this deal doesn't effect the global oil economy, or they would be taking definitive action to protect those obscenely huge profits...
this is the first time in history that the entire world has an enemy of world peace basically at it's mercy, and we're too petrified to smash them...we fucking deserve russia, and all the little russias that we are encouraging right now...as soon as russia gets what it wants out of the world, then it will be south korea's turn to blackmail the fucking cowardly planet with their bombs, then who the fuck else has a bomb? they'll all get on a list to annex the nicest properties of their neighbors, and if we say anything, they'll wave their nuclear bomb club membership cards, and we'll all just back the fuck off...the entire world makes me fucking ashamed to be a part of it's cowardice.
why don't we just reapportion the entire world right now and give 20% of each country adjacent to a military dictatorship that possesses nukes, to the military dictatorships? just save them the trouble of empty posturing that we'll cave to anyway?
