I agree emphatically.
The fact that the people who have are tested and traced and not visiting the one or two grocery stores you can go to is why you haven't caught it. If asymptomatic spreaders go to those few places you're permitted to go, you'll catch it, despite your lockdown, just like Rome and NYC.
www.mercurynews.com
mmm no, travel restrictions don't explain the death rates dropping off like they have. Populations were already seeded before travel restrictions were put in place. Once the virus is in the community exponential growth in infections with death rates lagging by a few weeks is all one needs to explain those early growth rates. The claim is that by locking down the population, the community managed to reduce case rates followed by drops in death rates. This part of the theory that we talked about last night.
It says "social distancing". It doesn't say that forcing the economy to completely halt flattened the curve. I have not for a second contradicted this. In fact, I have argued that strict lockdowns actually reduce the amount of space available for social distancing and force people to seek supplies in fewer places, increasing the chances they will come into contact with fomites. In other words, these LOCKDOWNS turn grocery stores into the same risky environment as hospitals. You're not arguing against what I am saying at all.
But that's not the whole picture. What we're seeing is that CASES continue to skyrocket after LOCKDOWNS are implemented, for weeks.
Perhaps you need to define the term "lockdown" then, and point to where exactly they are occurring and not working. If you can't go to the beach or public park, is that a "lockdown" or "social distancing"? If you drive two counties over to have some fun, and get a $1000 ticket due to a shelter in place order, is that social distancing, or lockdown? Asking for a friend.
All businesses and schools and public places being closed and people being ordered to stay indoors is a lockdown. Such lockdowns do not correlate with flattened curves as those can be explained by the other factors.
I don't disagree with you when you say that draconian and absolute lockdowns of the population are not necessary and do more harm than good.
Coronavirus: Santa Cruz County’s case curve ‘among the very best’ in state
“There’s very optimistic news there, although it’s very early,” said Health Officer Gail Newel at a news conference Thursday. “We are among the very best counties in California in terms of flatteni…
Coronavirus
www.santacruzhealth.org
I offered you an example of a flattened curve, with "lockdown" (in my own county). Now explain.
Santa Cruz had its first "confirmed case" on March 7. California implemented the "stay at home order" on March 20. There are now 91 confirmed cases in Santa Cruz County. This is slightly better than average for California counties. Nonetheless, the virus has continued to spread and has doubled every 8 days. This doubling time is a reduction from the 6 day doubling time recorded in regions with no such measures in place.
Travel restrictions? What travel restrictions? Shelter In Place, means stay where you are unless you stay where you are unless you need to go out to get essential items. When people follow shelter in place orders, travel restrictions are not necessary.
California's stay at home order isn't just a lockdown on the economy. You can't travel between cities without going through a checkpoint and having your license scanned. If you're from out of state, you're "ordered to self-quarantine for two weeks".
This is a good graph for my point. The counties less visited have less infected.Coronavirus: Santa Cruz County’s case curve ‘among the very best’ in state
“There’s very optimistic news there, although it’s very early,” said Health Officer Gail Newel at a news conference Thursday. “We are among the very best counties in California in terms of flatteni…
Coronavirus
www.santacruzhealth.org
And I accept that I could have made this point better, this is my point.
Not true. I've traveled in and out of 3 cities within my county multiple times since the beginning of the lockdown for essential items, no problem, no checkpoints, no ID scans.
If you "Shelter In Place" there's nowhere to travel to unless you need to get essential items.
Splitting hairs. Not all counties have been able to fully implement it and what you describe is little more than going a few kilometers out of your way from one suburb to the next. The fact remains that very few people from outside of your region have been in to your region since the "stay at home order" and that accounts for the very minor slowing in the rate of spread which is still not sufficient to prevent the rate from increasing beyond the ability of the authorities to trace and test. It's still growing exponentially, doubling every 8 days through human to human spread, despite the lockdown.