Lockdowns don't work.

[abandonconflict]

Universities begin considering the possibility of canceling in-person classes until 2021

Universities begin considering the possibility of canceling in-person classes until 2021

A number of universities are beginning to consider the possibility that in-person classes may not resume until 2021.

www.cnn.com

Universities are continuing scheduled classes in South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Sweden.

 

[doublejj]

Fast decisions in Bay Area helped slow virus spread

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — On the morning of March 15, as Italy became the epicenter of the global coronavirus pandemic, a half dozen high-ranking California health officials held an emergency conference call to discuss efforts to contain the spread of the virus in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Many factors have fueled the speed of the disease spread throughout the world. But that three-hour call and the bold decisions to come out of it were central to helping California avoid the kind of devastation the virus wrought in parts of Europe and New York City, experts say.

Fast decisions in Bay Area helped slow virus spread

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — On the morning of March 15, as Italy became the epicenter of the global coronavirus pandemic, a half dozen high-ranking California health officials held an emergency conference call to discuss efforts to contain the spread of the virus in the San Francisco Bay Area.

apnews.com

 

[doublejj]

we just need more time before we are ready, too early to unlock.....stay home wash your hands beat Covid-19

Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver
“People don’t understand how dangerous this test is,” said Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota. “We sacrificed quality for speed, and in the end, when it’s people’s lives that are hanging in the balance, safety has to take precedence over speed.”

Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver

A law firm in Scottsdale, Arizona, tested employees who hoped, with the prick of a...

www.sfgate.com

 

[doublejj]

KENTUCKY REPORTS HIGHEST CORONAVIRUS INFECTION INCREASE AFTER A WEEK OF PROTESTS TO REOPEN STATE
"We are still in the midst of this fight against a deadly and highly contagious virus," the governor said during his daily news conference. "Let's make sure, as much as we're looking at those benchmarks and we're looking at the future, that we are acting in the present and we are doing the things that it takes to protect one another."

Kentucky Sees Highest Jump in COVID-19 Infections Amid Pressure to Reopen

"We are still in the midst of this fight against a deadly and highly contagious virus," Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear said.

www.newsweek.com

 

[doublejj]

The second wave of the Spanish flu killed 10x as many as the first wave.....stay home wash your hands

 

[Grandpapy]

Lockdowns dont work without food.

She says she does not doubt that the virus is a killer, but believes that many are likelier to die of hunger, because government aid has been slow to trickle in. Now, neighbors are helping neighbors, as the community turns inward to feed its poorest residents.

‘Will We Die Hungry?’ A Teeming Manila Slum Chafes Under Lockdown (Published 2020)

Life was already a struggle in the crowded shanties of San Roque. Then came the coronavirus.

www.nytimes.com

 

[abandonconflict]

Italy implemeted its lockdown on March 9. There were 9,172 cases. 17 days later, which is widely accepted as an above average incubation period length, there were more than 80k cases and the number of new cases per day was still increasing. By the very virtue of it being a logarithmic graph, it should have flattened even if new cases per day were the same, day after day. You don't have to be a math major to grasp this but some math majors don't. So the curve overcame house odds to not flatten.

They could not stop the spread. Sadly, they failed utterly and the apex correlated with easing. I don't believe easing the lockdowns caused the line to slightly inflect horizontally, they just got as sick as they were going to get. The infection of SARS-CoV-2 spread until so many people had it that the R0 decreased by virtue of there not being enough new hosts though the overwhelming majority were asymptomatic or extremely mild.

Yes, I did in fact click reply to my own comment. This is one of the many that has been buried by page after page of pettiness and shit-posting.

So this German peer-reviewed study, dated April 6, concluded that only an average of 6% of cases worldwide were actually detected:

Information for the Media - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

Website of the Georg-August-University Göttingen

www.uni-goettingen.de

Insufficient and delayed testing may explain why some European countries, such as Italy and Spain, are experiencing much higher casualty numbers (relative to reported confirmed cases) than Germany, which has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%) – two countries that have received widespread criticism from public health experts for their delayed response to the pandemic.
In sharp contrast to this, South Korea appears to have discovered almost half of all its SARS-CoV-2 infections. The authors estimate that on 31 March 2020, Germany had 460,000 infections. Based on the same method, they calculate that the United States had more than ten million, Spain more than five million, Italy around three million and the United Kingdom around two million infections. On the same day the Johns Hopkins University reported that globally there were less than 900,000 confirmed cases, meaning that the vast majority of infections were undetected.

So if Italy had 9,172 confirmed cases on March 9, they would have had more than 260,000 actual infections at that time. The study estimates that Italy then had "around 3 million" (1 in 20 Italians infected) on April 6, two weeks ago. Nine days later, Italy eased its lockdown. On that day, April 15, there were 162,488 confirmed cases. This, according to the study indicates that about 4.6 million (more than 1 in 15) had been infected by then, which is consistent. This is more than a seventeen-fold increase during the lockdown. From this, a doubling rate can be extrapolated and then applied to the overall population to estimate how long until the entire country will have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Instead of doing that, I'm simply going to state what is less obvious. As the "one out of every ___" gets to be closer to 100% infection, the R0 naturally diminishes simply due to each person having fewer uninfected hosts to infect. Also, it goes from 50% infected to 100% infected just as fast as it has been doubling when the numbers were far smaller. Today, 1 in 12 Italians have been infected by the coronavirus, according to this estimate.

 

[hanimmal]

Currently, the case fatality rate in the US is (not an estimate) above 5%.

Now, we have peer-reviewed science proving an infection rate estimate. The German study estimates that 1.6% of total cases in the US are confirmed and this is further supported by the Stanford study which estimates that infection rates are 50-85 times higher than what has been confirmed. This points to a staggering 47.9 million US residents having been infected. This suggests a 0.09% total mortality rate.

Is that 5% of the tested people or estimate on the population?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Currently, the case fatality rate in the US is (not an estimate) above 5%.

Now, we have peer-reviewed science proving an infection rate estimate. The German study estimates that 1.6% of total cases in the US are confirmed and this is further supported by the Stanford study which estimates that infection rates are 50-85 times higher than what has been confirmed. This points to a staggering 47.9 million US residents having been infected. This suggests a 0.09% total mortality rate.

I don't believe the stanford study, it has serious flaws, including its location which was a hot spot and there was selection bias, a reliable dutch study puts the case multiplier at around 15 x and that is more inline with the German data, but twice as high at 3% and this puts the number of estimated cases at 11.5 million, using the german data it would be closer to 5 million.

These numbers and estimates are still all over the place.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Let's be generous and say that the real mortality rate is .5% and multiply total deaths by 20x to get an estimate

40,750 x 20= 815,000, but this is a historic number an indicates the infection rate of the past and if we assume it will be 10 x higher today, that puts us at around 8 million cases total

There is insufficient information at this point to draw any solid conclusions, yet.

 

[abandonconflict]

Is that 5% of the tested people or estimate on the population?

It's case fatality rate. I have defined that specific term several times. At least once in this thread. It's number of confirmed cases by number of dead.

 

[abandonconflict]

Let's be generous and say

No. Don't ever fucking do that shit again. You show your work. Besides, you're just pulling numbers from your ass. Each of those numbers in my post are from the study and from today's stats on worldmeters.info. Don't be fuckin sloppy. Conservative math is one thing, that shit you did is a fucking insult.

 

[abandonconflict]

Currently, the case fatality rate in the US is (not an estimate) above 5%.

Now, we have peer-reviewed science proving an infection rate estimate. The German study estimates that 1.6% of total cases in the US are confirmed and this is further supported by the Stanford study which estimates that infection rates are 50-85 times higher than what has been confirmed. This points to a staggering 47.9 million US residents having been infected. This suggests a 0.09% total mortality rate.

 

[abandonconflict]

There, I posted it again. That case fatality rate is straight from worldmeters.info.

The German study is the what we use to extrapolate from today's number of confirmed cases the estimate of total infected. That's an estimate but it's scientific. I threw in the Stanford study just as a buttress. That shit you did, "let's be generous and say". NO!

Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,841,497 Cases and 2,966,060 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[abandonconflict]

@hanimmal

To be very clear, as I warmly welcome you to an honest debate, especially if you disagree, and with assurance that I can indeed be amicable:

Case fatality rate is straight forward. Take the number of confirmed, divide by the number of dead. That easy. That's CFR and it's an easy number to track.

Infection fatality rate or just "mortality rate" will still be dealing with estimates for at least several years, if not forever. Eventually we'll just have to agree on a raneg of estimates but it's got to be estimated based on science and you have to show your math. Eventually, the Case fatality rate is forgotten because it will keep changing and every epidemiologist knows that it's way off. The latest estimates are saying it's at leats an order of magnitude over-estimated.

Total infections will also be debated for a couple of years but most will form a consensus and a number will emerge in a matter of months after it stops growing. The other number that goes with this in order to estimate the mortality rate is the number of casualties. I'll tell you one thing I hate and will ask you not to do, is try to predict how many people will die. It serves no actual purpose, it's morbid, and it's just wrong. I mean, you will invariably be wrong. Do yourself a favor and do do it.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

No. Don't ever fucking do that shit again. You show your work. Besides, you're just pulling numbers from your ass. Each of those numbers in my post are from the study and from today's stats on worldmeters.info. Don't be fuckin sloppy. Conservative math is one thing, that shit you did is a fucking insult.

We know the fatality rate is a result of dividing the deaths against the total cases that present and they only represent a fraction of the total cases, not the true picture or mortality rate, there is more reliable data that indicates that this number is less than 1%. Indeed it is closer to .5%, these numbers are from a reliable study and indicate that the number of cases can be multiplied by 15 and my numbers were from the worldmeters too.

And anyway you approach it shows from 5 to 11.5 million, 5 million using the German data (you provided) and 11.5 million using the Dutch. By pulling a number like 10x outta my ass, I arrived around the middle of that range, not bad for an ass pull.

The Stanford study has flaws in selection bias and methodology.

Start seeking the truth and stop making a point, the truth will set you free. Start acting like a scientist and not a politician. You started with a conclusion and not a question.

 

[hanimmal]

@hanimmal

To be very clear, as I warmly welcome you to an honest debate, especially if you disagree, and with assurance that I can indeed be amicable:

Case fatality rate is straight forward. Take the number of confirmed, divide by the number of dead. That easy. That's CFR and it's an easy number to track.

Infection fatality rate or just "mortality rate" will still be dealing with estimates for at least several years, if not forever. Eventually we'll just have to agree on a raneg of estimates but it's got to be estimated based on science and you have to show your math. Eventually, the Case fatality rate is forgotten because it will keep changing and every epidemiologist knows that it's way off. The latest estimates are saying it's at leats an order of magnitude over-estimated.

Total infections will also be debated for a couple of years but most will form a consensus and a number will emerge in a matter of months after it stops growing. The other number that goes with this in order to estimate the mortality rate is the number of casualties. I'll tell you one thing I hate and will ask you not to do, is try to predict how many people will die. It serves no actual purpose, it's morbid, and it's just wrong. I mean, you will invariably be wrong. Do yourself a favor and do do it.

I am not sure why you feel it is necessary to tell me to not do that, but I will go one step even further and say we don't necessarily have enough information to think we have good enough data to know what is going on just yet.

This is a very brutal disease though, that is indisputable. People are dropping, and it is wreaking havoc on the people who are exposed to the public on a daily basis. We need to be very careful.

 

[abandonconflict]

We know the fatality rate is a result of dividing the deaths against the total cases that present and they only represent a fraction of the total cases, not the true picture or mortality rate, there is more reliable data that indicates that this number is less than 1%. Indeed it is closer to .5%, these numbers are from a reliable study and indicate that the number of cases can be multiplied by 15 and my numbers were from the worldmeters too.

And anyway you approach it shows from 5 to 11.5 million, 5 million using the German data (you provided) and 11.5 million using the Dutch. By pulling a number like 10x outta my ass, I arrived around the middle of that range, not bad for an ass pull.

The Stanford study has flaws in selection bias and methodology.

Start seeking the truth and stop making a point, the truth will set you free. Start acting like a scientist and not a politician. You started with a conclusion and not a question.

You're a fucking windbag.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

You're a fucking windbag.

Numbers don't lie (provided they are based on accurate data) only those who use them. Lies, damn lies and then there are statistics...

 

[abandonconflict]

I am not sure why you feel it is necessary to tell me to not do that, but I will go one step even further and say we don't necessarily have enough information to think we have good enough data to know what is going on just yet.

This is a very brutal disease though, that is indisputable. People are dropping, and it is wreaking havoc on the people who are exposed to the public on a daily basis. We need to be very careful.

No I actually posted the current data from worldmeters.info. Believe it or not, it's 2020 and the world is connected. China's lying for sure and some stuff well we just might have to go with data from a few hours ago, but it's at your fingertips.

I used the peer reviewed German study to extrapolate those estimates. I'll post again if you're having trouble understanding it. I underlined a few parts to help you out.