War

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The Ukrainians are getting a steady supply of shells, they could use more though, but have enough for now and can last until more supplies arrive. As for population Russia is already had force generation problems and I figure it's more about equipment and supplies than warm bodies. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier might be 43, but they are country of 40 million that has barely scratched the surface for available manpower, I doubt they lost 100K KIA yet.

One of the reasons for delaying F16s was to make the place safe for them and that is what I figure the ATACMS are for with longer range ones coming. As for drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, they tried that before and failed when they were stronger and Ukraine less prepared. They already went through that before and have lots of backup generators in country and more will arrive and I'm sure power transformers were ordered a year ago by several countries. This time it could be different with Ukraine striking back in kind with drones and I don't think the Russians will be ready for it in terms of defense or replacements.

War is a stupid business however, but I think US support will continue and the Magats in the house defeated. Russia is having plenty of problems on a lot of fronts and back home too. The Ukrainian general spoke of a stalemate, but this could be to get more supplies or deceive the Russians about upcoming offensives. They are on the other side of the river south of Kherson and that must be causing trouble for the Russians. and they seem to have a lot of focus on hitting targets in Crimea, even after driving the Russian navy out.

I don't expect this to be smooth sailing all the way, but a lot of what we hear from the Ukrainians is they need still more stuff, this is true to a point, but they also want all they can get and will never say they have enough! I think Joe has a plan to destroy the Russian military and economy and no matter what happens in the 24 elections, the Russians will be finished in Ukraine by election day in America. Joe's reluctance has more to do with sucking Vlad in than being afraid of him IMO, his plan is to bleed him white. It is the best long-term security for Ukraine and when the Russians are finally driven out the war will likely end. I don't make the calls, but it is a theory of mine based on statements by Blinken and Austin earlier in the war, they only said it once at a news conference, after that, crickets. I think Joe told them to STFU after seeing that news conference.

Russia has not even declared war, once they do they can call up all the warm bodies they need. The only problem right now is the election (think in March). A country of 40 million and now they have just as many people fighting below the age of 43 as above? Think about it, half are above. And this war will go on for years. Just said the war is in a stalemate just to ask for more aid? Surely you jest. Have you seen the front line, how much territory has changed hands this year? Sure looks like a stalemate to me. As the general said, it is hard for either side to sneak up on the other.

"...a lot of what we hear from the Ukrainians is they need still more stuff, this is true to a point, but they also want all they can get and will never say they have enough!"

What is enough? To fire on the Russians when they attack? Seam the Russians took the north of Adiivka because the Ukrainians did not have enough shells to hit all the mechanized equipment and the Russians took the tree lines because they did not have enough mortars to keep them out.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Russia has not even declared war, once they do they can call up all the warm bodies they need. The only problem right now is the election (think in March). A country of 40 million and now they have just as many people fighting below the age of 43 as above? Think about it, half are above. And this war will go on for years. Just said the war is in a stalemate just to ask for more aid? Surely you jest. Have you seen the front line, how much territory has changed hands this year? Sure looks like a stalemate to me. As the general said, it is hard for either side to sneak up on the other.

"...a lot of what we hear from the Ukrainians is they need still more stuff, this is true to a point, but they also want all they can get and will never say they have enough!"

What is enough? To fire on the Russians when they attack? Seam the Russians took the north of Adiivka because the Ukrainians did not have enough shells to hit all the mechanized equipment and the Russians took the tree lines because they did not have enough mortars to keep them out.

A lot of those people driving up the age average are territorials, and a lot of them are veterans of the past 9 years of war and older guys, I think the regular army is younger than the average age. There are a lot of young people in Ukraine who are not serving and avoiding military service as in any war, but surly you are not suggesting Ukraine lost over a million men fighting this war because they are prepared to lose far more than that.

It's not about warm bodies they can be easily killed these days, it's about equipment, munitions, training and logistics. I'm sure the Ukrainians would like more stuff and I would like to see them get it, but as I said before, I think this is part of a larger strategic plan to destroy the Russian military and economy. It's just that Joe is sticking to a plan cooked up about a year or more ago, but is not mentioned, much to the frustration of retired Generals like Ben Hodges. If they didn't have such a plan, it sure looks like it is working out that way as more and more Russian equipment and units are feed piecemeal into the cauldron.

We will see, but I don't think Joe or now some European allies will let Putin win, the biggest problem I see are republicans in the house. What they do depends on Trump's fate and the faster they lock him up the faster Russian support in the GOP fades away. Ukraine is one issue that divides the republicans down the middle, in spite of Trump.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Russia PLANS to Trade More Dead Russians for Ukrainian Land

This video talks about the war in Ukraine. Russia is going to send more men to their deaths in Ukraine. They do not plan to stop. Russia glories in losing 20+ million in WWII. The few hundred thousand lost in Ukraine is only a down-payment for Ukrainian land in their minds. They can, and will, spend a lot more.
Note: The 20-27 million figure was all Soviet, not just Russian. I recognize this historical fact.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

The west planned on fighting the war with airpower and missiles, a war of mobility, not a static war of attrition. The difference is we recognize these problems and will remedy them or give other weapons systems, or money for FPV drones to compensate for it while deficiencies are made up. South Korea has large supplies of 155mm ammunition and the capacity to make much more, we haven't heard much about their contributions and I'm sure Joe has been asking, not all countries are as public about aid as America, however. If North Korea is supplying a million shells to Russia, South Korea will likely increase their contribution to Ukraine. A while back their minister of defense said they had every artillery system in the North targeted with highly accurate missiles and could take them out very quickly, so they aren't as dependent on shells as they used to be.

Warning Nato needs to 'radically change' ammunition supply for Ukraine

Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, Nato has stood alongside President Zelensky, providing Kyiv with the weapons it needs to fight back against Russian forces.

This includes ammunition, with Ukraine burning through 250,000 155mm artillery rounds a month – four times the production capacity of the US and EU before the war.

Countries across the alliance are now trying to meet that demand and are ramping up their ammunition production to support Ukraine.

But is it being done in the right way?

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

This won't fly with the Ukrainians unless Russia leaves and the 2014 borders are restored, nor should they agree to any such thing unless that happens first. Those speaking about agreements are talking about making an agreement with someone who broke all the previous ones and treaties, an agreement with Putin would be a useless and counterproductive exercise. One might as well make a deal with Hitler as Putin and why should they or the west do so when Russia is in so much trouble with their military about to be destroyed over the next year if they stay in Ukraine. Peace is simple in this case Russia leaves all of Ukraine and does not continue to attack Ukraine. Those promoting peace at any price will get war instead.

If Joe doesn't destroy Russia over this, he probably shouldn't be president, it would be a dereliction of duty as commander and chief. America spent trillions over decades defending itself against the Soviet and now Russian menace. Ukraine is destroying Russian military capabilities for a pittance in terms of military budgets, and this war will leave them largely toothless by next year at the current rate of wastage.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1720607177180688865

 

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A lot of those people driving up the age average are territorials, and a lot of them are veterans of the past 9 years of war and older guys, I think the regular army is younger than the average age. There are a lot of young people in Ukraine who are not serving and avoiding military service as in any war, but surly you are not suggesting Ukraine lost over a million men fighting this war because they are prepared to lose far more than that.

It's not about warm bodies they can be easily killed these days, it's about equipment, munitions, training and logistics. I'm sure the Ukrainians would like more stuff and I would like to see them get it, but as I said before, I think this is part of a larger strategic plan to destroy the Russian military and economy. It's just that Joe is sticking to a plan cooked up about a year or more ago, but is not mentioned, much to the frustration of retired Generals like Ben Hodges. If they didn't have such a plan, it sure looks like it is working out that way as more and more Russian equipment and units are feed piecemeal into the cauldron.

We will see, but I don't think Joe or now some European allies will let Putin win, the biggest problem I see are republicans in the house. What they do depends on Trump's fate and the faster they lock him up the faster Russian support in the GOP fades away. Ukraine is one issue that divides the republicans down the middle, in spite of Trump.

It is not about warm bodies? Really? And where do you get the one million from? Surely not from me, I do not have a penchant for making stuff up out of thin air. The larger plan from the Ukrainian's point of view is to win the war so more warm bodies do not push up sunflower seeds. And your direct lint to Joe, sometimes I think that stuff is out of thin air also. Let Putin win? Talk to Congress about that.

 

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Russia's Combat Compliance Problem is Worse Than You Think

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has lost numerous combat objectives due to noncompliance from Russian troops, leading Moscow to resort to desperate tactics such as barrier troops to keep their soldiers in the fight. This video explains why Russia's combat compliance is so bad, and why, if left unchecked, it could be a factor leading to Russia's future collapse as a nation.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

It is not about warm bodies? Really? And where do you get the one million from? Surely not from me, I do not have a penchant for making stuff up out of thin air. The larger plan from the Ukrainian's point of view is to win the war so more warm bodies do not push up sunflower seeds. And your direct lint to Joe, sometimes I think that stuff is out of thin air also. Let Putin win? Talk to Congress about that.

Countries have fought down to a third of their male populations, if the will to fight is there. Ukraine probably lost no more than 100K KIA, if Russia lost 300K KIA Ukraine has a population of 40 million and will lose several million easily before they even begin to think about talking to the Russians unless forced to by allies. As I said before, it's about equipment, munitions, fuel and logistics more than it is about the number of warm untrained bodies on the battlefield.

As for Joe, he has a lot of power and tricks up his sleeve, the battle in congress over Ukrainian funding is far from over and the magats are a minority in their own party over it. If you were going to come up with a strategy to deal with Russia a year after the war started and with the Ukrainians demonstrating, they could do the job, it would be what is happening now in Ukraine. After the Europeans were weaned off Russian oil and gas and had come on board with the plan. After all the legacy Soviet arms in Europe were used up depleting away a large fraction of the Russian legacy arms. I'm basing my belief in what Austin and Blinken said once at a news conference in Europe around a year ago, they only said it once though.

Vlad can't withdraw from Ukraine it is politically impossible for him to do it now and the Ukrainian government can't sign a peace while Russia occupies it's territory. Sign a peace with who? Putin. We are not struggling to win this war, the Russians are and resorting to increasingly desperate measures. The Ukrainians are struggling, but that is a matter of policy, not material resources, blame Joe and the rest if you want, but a war of attrition is what you have for now.

 

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Summary of today's AFU cruise missile strikes on #Kerch 1) At approximately 1730 local (1530Z), it is believed that four Ukrainian Air Force Su-24M bombers launched eight Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles from positions most likely over the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast between Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro. If true, and it looks like they were used, the missiles would have to be the longer range version of the Storm Shadow/Scalp with a published range of 400km. If the AFU did not launch Storm Shadows missiles, than the weapon used is unknown.

Simultaneously, UkrAF Mig-29 and/or Su-27 aircraft fired multiple AGM-160 MALD decoy missiles and AGM-88 MARM anti-radar missiles to confuse and attack, respectively, Russian air defenses. 2) Russian sources immediately began reporting that the Crimean Bridge was being attacked but, locals instead reported explosions and smoke in the area of the Zaliv Ship Yard (45.264263, 36.421571). As a result, it is clear the Crimean bridge was never the intended target in the attack. Instead, it appears the AFU was targeting the pr. 22800 Karakurt-class corvett "Askold" and/or the shipyard itself instead.

The ship, which is a Kalibr missile carrier and one of the most modern and advanced vessels in the Black Sea Fleet, was located afloat at the shipyard from which it had been launched in 2021 as is currently undergoing sea trials. 3) Video evidence from the Kerch area showed Russian air defenses engaging targets and at least one large explosion at or near the shipyard. Russian sources claim that debris from a rocket hit a storage shed or workshop at the shipyard. However, there are multiple reports that the Askold was hit and damaged during the attack but the is no objective evidence of it. Images from later in the evening showed a glowing area similar to a fire near where the Askold was moored. Confirmation of damage to the Askold and/or Zaliv shipyard will most likely not be made until clear satellite imagery is available.

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1720937232452759893?s=20

 

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Zelensky invites Trump to Ukraine: ‘He can’t manage this war’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited former President Trump to his country’s war zone, saying the former president “can’t manage this war.”
Zelensky, who joined NBC “Meet the Press” Kristen Welker, responded to Trump’s claims that he could end the war with Russia in 24 hours.

“Former President Trump said that about 24 hours, that he can manage it and finish the war,” Zelensky said during the interview that airs Sunday. “For me, what can I say? So he’s very welcome as well.”

“President Biden was here, and I think he understood some details which you can understand only being here,” Zelenskyy continued. “So I invite President Trump. If he can come here, I will need 24 minutes.”

In March, the former president said he could “solve” the war in Ukraine in one day if he were reelected, noting that the negotiation process would be “very easy.”

The Ukrainian president said he would need just 24 minutes instead of 24 hours to explain to Trump that he can’t end the war as easily as he thinks he could.

Zelensky added that peace can’t be negotiated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even if Trump were to try.
“He can’t bring peace because of Putin,” he said. “If he’s not trying and if he’s not ready to give our territory to this terrible man, to Putin, if you are not ready to give it, if you are not ready to give our independence, he can’t manage it.”

Welker asked Zelensky if he thinks Trump would support Ukraine in its war if he were to win the 2024 presidential election, with Zelensky saying he wasn’t sure.

“Really, I don’t know,” he said. “I hope that it depends not only on the president institutionally. I think it depends on the opinion of Americans, of your society. I think that is most important.”

Zelensky invites Trump to Ukraine: ‘He can’t manage this war’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited former President Trump to his country’s war zone, saying the former president “can’t manage this war.” Zelensky, who joined NBC “Meet …

thehill.com

 

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Zelensky invites Trump to Ukraine: ‘He can’t manage this war’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited former President Trump to his country’s war zone, saying the former president “can’t manage this war.”
Zelensky, who joined NBC “Meet the Press” Kristen Welker, responded to Trump’s claims that he could end the war with Russia in 24 hours.

“Former President Trump said that about 24 hours, that he can manage it and finish the war,” Zelensky said during the interview that airs Sunday. “For me, what can I say? So he’s very welcome as well.”

“President Biden was here, and I think he understood some details which you can understand only being here,” Zelenskyy continued. “So I invite President Trump. If he can come here, I will need 24 minutes.”

In March, the former president said he could “solve” the war in Ukraine in one day if he were reelected, noting that the negotiation process would be “very easy.”

The Ukrainian president said he would need just 24 minutes instead of 24 hours to explain to Trump that he can’t end the war as easily as he thinks he could.

Zelensky added that peace can’t be negotiated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even if Trump were to try.
“He can’t bring peace because of Putin,” he said. “If he’s not trying and if he’s not ready to give our territory to this terrible man, to Putin, if you are not ready to give it, if you are not ready to give our independence, he can’t manage it.”

Welker asked Zelensky if he thinks Trump would support Ukraine in its war if he were to win the 2024 presidential election, with Zelensky saying he wasn’t sure.

“Really, I don’t know,” he said. “I hope that it depends not only on the president institutionally. I think it depends on the opinion of Americans, of your society. I think that is most important.”

Zelensky invites Trump to Ukraine: ‘He can’t manage this war’

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has invited former President Trump to his country’s war zone, saying the former president “can’t manage this war.” Zelensky, who joined NBC “Meet …

thehill.com

A one-way tour of the front, if the courts let him leave the country at this point. A run for Russia is his only option now, but I think we are well past that.

 

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721173789969469473

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Another reason to destroy Russia's military and economic power, to reduce their foreign influence and kick them out of the Caucuses, middle east and Africa. They are not in any of those places for constructive reasons, just to attack the interests of other countries, including those they are operating in.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721223667739234763

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721187087553049066

We can start by showing the main points

1: They don't know how to fight in modern warfare with the tanks they have

2: Their tanks are not suitable for modern warfare

3: They don't care about human or material losses.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721186522290888936

 

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Rocket Kills Dozens of Troops, Zelensky/Zaluzhny at odds, Ukraine to strike Russia 'unexpectedly'

 

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Sad day for Ukraine.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

Looks like they have been producing them for months and the rate of production can be high for something like this when not under sanctions. It might be Ukraine's answer to attacks on their grid this winter, turn the lights off in Russia too. I thought they would have developed and manufactured such drones already, but maybe they were testing out designs in combat conditions before settling on a design to mass produce.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721481314346348545

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721528507572850691

 

[BudmanTX]

and another ship goes boom

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1721595648569426377

nice hit