War

printer said:

It is everything about territory.

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russia is a nation of animals led by a criminal fuck...i've lost what little respect i had for them since the war in Ukraine started.
there is a small possibility they could win this war, if the Ukrainians fuck up really badly...which i don't see them doing. they haven't fallen for russia's more transparent ploys, and i see no reason they would start to now. russia has more men to call up...untrained short timers with absolutley no motivation to fight the Ukrainians, unless they want to murder more civilians, and then loot their bombed homes and rape more old ladies and little girls, and probably little boys too...so call them all up, and lets get rid of the murdering baby rapists all at once...as more equipment floods into Ukraine, the army will use it, out ranging the decrepit russian antiques that are all they have left. once they have weapons with the range and accuracy, whats to stop them from destroying the russian supply depots and rail tracks that they use to feed the depots? then what the fuck are the russians going to do? oh yeah, they're going to die like dogs, in a ditch...where real dogs can piss on them, which is all the burial they deserve

printer said:

But at the end of the day Russia will probably hold the Donbas due to the rivers and the bridges being blown. So the lines will be drawn and not much will cause them to change. My whole point was to bring some reality into the discussion. Sure seeing a bunch of jack in the boxes is fun but the Ukrainians are also bleeding on the soil. "We want to see the Russian army diminished." Sure they will be. But it is not like they will just take their remaining tanks and go home. They already rephrased their objectives as the main one liberating the Donbas. They are probably going to declare it Russian territory although that might take a while. Will the war be over soon as some have said? Probably not as the Russians and Nato will not keep dumping money into the conflict resulting in dollars and roubles going up in smoke. But for Russia losing would mean more than going broke, Putin's reign would be over. And I do not see him agreeing to that.

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I agree with some of what you are saying, the Ukrainians aren't stupid. They will fight them to their natural defensive lines, where there are no such natural defenses they will use precision weapons, drones and a traditional armored assault with infantry on dug in positions. However I expect most of the Russian offensive power to be broken on the field in the east, if they retreat to defensive positions it will be because they are weak. Remember they will have trouble crossing those rivers in the east too and they might need to.

I think the Ukrainians won't waste time on defensive positions in the east, they will pivot to the south where the going is easier and head for Mariupol dividing the Russian forces in half and cutting off the east from the south. Then the obvious move is the destruction of the bridge at Kerch and if they can't do it, it means Uncle Sam does not want it destroyed, unlikely. If they leave the east as it is for now and clear the rest of the country by cutting off the Russians in the south, they can revisit the rest of the east.

The Ukrainians will be a much different army than the one they were fighting in the east these past 7 years, with their shoe string budget and old leftover Soviet arms. They might leave it to the drone crowd to play with, while they finish off the Russians in the south. They can enjoy a rain of small bombs and grenades on their trenches whenever they poke their heads out of their bunkers. That is another force that has been growing in leaps and bounds, the small drone guys who hover and drop stuff. We aren't hearing much about all those US military drones attack or recon either.

printer said:

What will happen? The Russians will be entrenched in the Donbas and won't be routed. They will sell it as a victory and everybody at home will be happy the Nazi's were given a black eye. What if, what if? The Ukrainians are doing the best they can with what they got. And unlike the video games there is no ammunition faerie to automatically reload them. So they are just trying to keep the retreat lines open so that their main forces do not get encircled by the Russians. They only have one bridge to retreat on from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Once that area falls then the Russians blow the bridge and the gains are fixed for the duration. Then they can move their forces to the next objective like they did moving their artillery from Mariupol. Will they continue on to Odessa? It is foreseeable. Russian might may be diminished but it will take a lot more weapons on the Ukrainian side to win everything back.

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then that's what the Ukrainians will get...do you seriously think the western world will let russia win? diy has become right about one thing i disagreed with him about...this has become a proxy war. Ukraine is our proxy, our champion, and we'll arm them to the teeth, armor them to the eyeballs, and give them so many supplies they won't have places to store them all, except in russian corpses...which is one of the few things there will be an abundance of. russia does not have the man power to maintain an occupation of the Donbas, or to maintain their existing occupation in Crimea. they may seize the territory, but maintaining it will bleed them dry. the Ukrainians are much better armed and equipped than they ever have been before, and they will stage strike after strike in any occupied territory until they have killed every russian on Ukrainian soil...and what the fuck will putin do about it? drop a nuke and invite retaliation from every nation in NATO, and from NATO itself? maybe, if he wants to see russia snuffed out like a candle.
this is an opportunity our intelligence community has been waiting for for decades, i doubt they'll let it pass without taking full advantage of it. with all the animosity the russian's have been building worldwide, i highly doubt the U.S. intelligence community is the only one spoiling to fuck the russians over. they have one enemy on the battle field, they have dozens behind the scenes....
you can say what you want...i wouldn't want to be in the position the russians are in right now...

printer said:

Won't happen.

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i think it will...it may take a year or two...but i think it will...and in the meantime, they still have syria to deal with, the Central African Republic, internal unrest from the eastern states, acts of sabotage across the entire country, and sanctions that are ruining their already minor league economy. at the same time, their actions are threatening the security of the worlds food supplies, which isn't earning them any fans, so they will have to deal with even more sanctions or direct actions from the nations that they will be starving, who will surely take what action against them that they can, when your people are already starving, what do you have to lose punching up at the ones starving you?

Roger A. Shrubber said:

i think it will...it may take a year or two...but i think it will...and in the meantime, they still have syria to deal with, the Central African Republic, internal unrest from the eastern states, acts of sabotage across the entire country, and sanctions that are ruining their already minor league economy. at the same time, their actions are threatening the security of the worlds food supplies, which isn't earning them any fans, so they will have to deal with even more sanctions or direct actions from the nations that they will be starving, who will surely take what action against them that they can, when your people are already starving, what do you have to lose punching up at the ones starving you?

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The Slaves have a history with waring with each other. In another 400 years time they will be doing the same thing.
Russia's economy is tiny, its about the same size as Australia's but with much, much more people and an even more difficult terrain and they have dealt with sanctions over and over again. No point looking at it from a Capitalist viewpoint. Are people starving because Putin unprovoked invaded his kinda own country (Kiev was the capital of Russia) or are they starving because the newly elected leader of Ukraine (who promised peaceful relations with Russia) publicly voiced he wanted to join Nato and Russia called in the Ukraine bluff? Or are they starving because America extended the war because they wanted their proxy war and a war is good for incumbent presidents? A combination and an escalation? Be nice when we have hindsight.

How long ago was Kiev the capital of Russia...

Its weird to blame people for being invaded, and to stick up for the invaders.

Roger A. Shrubber said:

then that's what the Ukrainians will get...do you seriously think the western world will let russia win? diy has become right about one thing i disagreed with him about...this has become a proxy war. Ukraine is our proxy, our champion, and we'll arm them to the teeth, armor them to the eyeballs, and give them so many supplies they won't have places to store them all, except in russian corpses...which is one of the few things there will be an abundance of. russia does not have the man power to maintain an occupation of the Donbas, or to maintain their existing occupation in Crimea. they may seize the territory, but maintaining it will bleed them dry. the Ukrainians are much better armed and equipped than they ever have been before, and they will stage strike after strike in any occupied territory until they have killed every russian on Ukrainian soil...and what the fuck will putin do about it? drop a nuke and invite retaliation from every nation in NATO, and from NATO itself? maybe, if he wants to see russia snuffed out like a candle.
this is an opportunity our intelligence community has been waiting for for decades, i doubt they'll let it pass without taking full advantage of it. with all the animosity the russian's have been building worldwide, i highly doubt the U.S. intelligence community is the only one spoiling to fuck the russians over. they have one enemy on the battle field, they have dozens behind the scenes....
you can say what you want...i wouldn't want to be in the position the russians are in right now...

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As Americans have found, winning a war can be easy. Winning the peace, not so much. But the Russians are good at that as they use brutal techniques. And they will put their puppets in power and have local spies everywhere. It will turn out as we thought the war was going to end after the first few days. Russia will have another Afghanistan on their hands but the other side will look just like them which will make keeping control harder.

?But that does not change the current situation. Russia has to take Donbas, if they get that they can move forces to the south. If they are so depleted they will just sit tight until they have restocked and then try again. It could be 5, 10, 20 years if a Putin type is in power. The only way this can really change is in changing Russian society. Hopefully the young displaces the old. The problem with that is it might take generations. And in that time they may get another Nationalist leader that convinces the new generation.

Lucky Luke said:

The Slaves have a history with waring with each other. In another 400 years time they will be doing the same thing.
Russia's economy is tiny, its about the same size as Australia's but with much, much more people and an even more difficult terrain and they have dealt with sanctions over and over again. No point looking at it from a Capitalist viewpoint. Are people starving because Putin unprovoked invaded his kinda own country (Kiev was the capital of Russia) or are they starving because the newly elected leader of Ukraine (who promised peaceful relations with Russia) publicly voiced he wanted to join Nato and Russia called in the Ukraine bluff? Or are they starving because America extended the war because they wanted their proxy war and a war is good for incumbent presidents? A combination and an escalation? Be nice when we have hindsight.

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How about the West wants to put down the thought that a nation with a bigger army can take over a lessor nation? Sometimes I wonder about you.

printer said:

As Americans have found, winning a war can be easy. Winning the peace, not so much. But the Russians are good at that as they use brutal techniques. And they will put their puppets in power and have local spies everywhere. It will turn out as we thought the war was going to end after the first few days. Russia will have another Afghanistan on their hands but the other side will look just like them which will make keeping control harder.

?But that does not change the current situation. Russia has to take Donbas, if they get that they can move forces to the south. If they are so depleted they will just sit tight until they have restocked and then try again. It could be 5, 10, 20 years if a Putin type is in power. The only way this can really change is in changing Russian society. Hopefully the young displaces the old. The problem with that is it might take generations. And in that time they may get another Nationalist leader that convinces the new generation.

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Vlad's main problem won't be maintaining fixed defenses in the east, it will be holding the south for now. I don't think eventually, the east can be held with fixed defensive positions, the Ukrainians will have the power to break trough them by the end of summer. I think it will resemble the historic situation in the east, while the rest of the country is cleared, why try to crack a tough nut when there are so many easier targets to destroy first? The situation in the east has been going on for 7 years and the war has alienated many of the Russian speakers in the region from Russia. They recently expanded their territorial gains and when Vlad gets all of Donbass Oblast, he will declare victory and try for peace, good luck with that!

When the Ukrainians drive for Mariupol, they might want to come out from behind those defensive positions in the east to intervene, or watch the bridge at Kerch destroyed and them divided east from the south.

printer said:

As Americans have found, winning a war can be easy. Winning the peace, not so much. But the Russians are good at that as they use brutal techniques. And they will put their puppets in power and have local spies everywhere. It will turn out as we thought the war was going to end after the first few days. Russia will have another Afghanistan on their hands but the other side will look just like them which will make keeping control harder.

?But that does not change the current situation. Russia has to take Donbas, if they get that they can move forces to the south. If they are so depleted they will just sit tight until they have restocked and then try again. It could be 5, 10, 20 years if a Putin type is in power. The only way this can really change is in changing Russian society. Hopefully the young displaces the old. The problem with that is it might take generations. And in that time they may get another Nationalist leader that convinces the new generation.

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they may take some territory in Donbas, but they can't keep it, not anymore. they won't have the man power to keep replacing the guards who will disappear on a nightly basis...the puppets they will put in place will have to have heavy security at all times, or they will end up dead at the first opportunity. Ukraine is a pretty large country, with a well educated, well trained, and motivated pool of people to call on, most of whom will have absolutely no problem killing russians like they were rabid dogs...which is appropriate.
if the west doesn't arm the Ukrainians well enough to do the job, then everything we have poured into Ukraine is already wasted...this is the best shot we have outside of open warfare to get rid of putin and the threat russia poses to world security, i can't believe we would let it slip past. if we have any sense whatever, we'll dump arms and armor, and intelligence and training into Ukraine till they have what they need to do the job.

printer said:

How about the West wants to put down the thought that a nation with a bigger army can take over a lessor nation? Sometimes I wonder about you.

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https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/DyeHard/story?id=3271207&page=1

https://web.stanford.edu/class/polisci211z/2.2/Mack WP 1975 Asymm Conf.pdf

Dig those pin drop mapping on the orcs ….

The Ukrainians are fighting defensive battle and trading ground in exchange for destroying Russian equipment and killing Russians as they advance. They might withdraw to the other side of the river, a natural defense, but will make Russia pay for it in destroyed BTGs at the usual ratio of 2 or 3 to one or more. Most of their forces are concentrated where they are making gains in the east.

Meanwhile there are better targets of opportunity defend where they are strong and advancing and attack where they are weak. It looks like they are surrounded and they are, in a small isolated place, but the Russian defensive lines are a long arc with few troops and the Ukrainians have much shorter lines of communications and can concentrate more force with fewer men. The Ukrainians are still playing a waiting game as far as I can see, waiting for the Russians to be ground down in offensive attacks and waiting for more allied equipment and an overwhelming advantage, before beginning their offensive phase this summer.

It is the same situation as around Kyiv, the ground and weapons are different, instead of Javelins and NLAWs, it's long range artillery and missile systems for the wide open spaces. The principle remains the same, use maneuver and trade ground for tactical advantage and to destroy 3 times as many of them attacking as you lose yourself will lose defending. They know what their objectives and plans are, it is no secret and they know what their manpower and equipment reserves are too. They also know they already destroyed 40% of what Vlad started with and that he now has thrown in 80% of his total ground combat power. They know their morale is rock bottom, their logistics weak and their communications suck, they also have few secrets hidden from us and can't do a thing on the battlefield with out the Ukrainians knowing all about it.

It won't be quick and it won't be easy, but it won't take years either. If they fight them to their defensive positions in Donbass then cause trouble in Belarus with the rebels fighting in Ukraine to draw away forces from the east. There are many things that can stretch Vlad's remaining army to the breaking point, including trouble in Georgia. I'd be lighting fires all around and inside his evil empire, to draw troops and resources away from eastern Ukraine, before going in for the kill, using precision munitions and more drones than they could count.


Update from Ukraine | Smart Move from Ukrainian Army

DIY-HP-LED said:

'Russian goals have changed and are contradictory' | Richard Spencer
54,156 views May 27, 2022 “The Russian goals have changed and are so contradictory that no one's quite clear what Putin is after.” Does Putin keep changing his goals of the invasion? Matt Chorley talks to Richard Spencer on Times Radio about what Putin wants.

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I still think he's waiting for Trumps indictment for the fireworks.

Roger A. Shrubber said:

they may take some territory in Donbas, but they can't keep it, not anymore. they won't have the man power to keep replacing the guards who will disappear on a nightly basis...the puppets they will put in place will have to have heavy security at all times, or they will end up dead at the first opportunity. Ukraine is a pretty large country, with a well educated, well trained, and motivated pool of people to call on, most of whom will have absolutely no problem killing russians like they were rabid dogs...which is appropriate.
if the west doesn't arm the Ukrainians well enough to do the job, then everything we have poured into Ukraine is already wasted...this is the best shot we have outside of open warfare to get rid of putin and the threat russia poses to world security, i can't believe we would let it slip past. if we have any sense whatever, we'll dump arms and armor, and intelligence and training into Ukraine till they have what they need to do the job.

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If uncle Sam pulls the Plug on the Ukrainians or throttles them out of fear of Putin, their name will be shit with allies, no one will have the slightest confidence with Uncle Sam at their back, if he puts a knife in Ukraine's. I believe Joe is playing the smart game with Vlad and staying inside the lines of traditional cold war proxy fights. He doesn't need to, the Pentagon and CIA have assessed the situation and told him what the Ukrainians need to win and how to achieve the objective of destroying the Russian army. It might look like he is reluctant to arm the Ukrainians and perhaps they are somewhat complacent in this or perhaps not. But if MLRS units suddenly show up at the right time and place, it might shock the Russians and leave them no time to adapt tactically. If they were introduced piecemeal before the decisive strike, the Russians would adapt their tactical dispositions to accommodate it as much as possible. The Ukrainians might not be completely happy with this, but the slow motion action in Washington and the shift of focus to Asia tells me something.

The Russian made the mistake of feeding their remaining forces into the east piecemeal and it allowed the Ukrainians to adapt as they started their offense before they were really ready with overwhelming force. Instead the Ukrainians destroyed BTGs one at a time as they were feed into the cauldron.

Grandpapy said:

I still think he's waiting for Trumps indictment for the fireworks.

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I think they might actually both go down at around the same time, they will interrupt the news of Trump's trial for sedition with a report from Moscow. Vlad was skydiving for his latest manly video when the parachute failed to open and he and the cameraman were killed...

Budzbuddha said:

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Tribalism works both ways. Why isn't the government providing this to the army becomes the logical question she neither asks or answers.

Budzbuddha said:

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fuck those russian women, and fuck those russian soldiers...she said "it seems the whole world is aiding out great enemies"....that would stop and make me think a bit if i said that...WHY is the whole world against me? WHY would practically the entire planet take my enemies side in this? but that doesn't occur to russians, a people so convinced of their own superiority that they assume the ENTIRE FUCKING PLANET is wrong, and they're right....so they're not just murderers, thieves, and rapist, they're self assured, sanctimonious murderers, thieves, and rapist...i hope they get all the wheel chairs they will need, i think it's going to be a lot

Roger A. Shrubber said:

fuck those russian women, and fuck those russian soldiers...she said "it seems the whole world is aiding out great enemies"....that would stop and make me think a bit if i said that...WHY is the whole world against me? WHY would practically the entire planet take my enemies side in this? but that doesn't occur to russians, a people so convinced of their own superiority that they assume the ENTIRE FUCKING PLANET is wrong, and they're right....so they're not just murderers, thieves, and rapist, they're self assured, sanctimonious murderers, thieves, and rapist...i hope they get all the wheel chairs they will need, i think it's going to be a lot

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I got my bike going today and went out for a warm up ride in order to get my sorry ass used to being in the seat again. Along the way I saw a car pull over and only the right brake light was working. I stopped at the driver's door and said the middle brake light and left light was out. (I tell drivers if possible about their brake lights) No idea which country but the guy had a eastern European accent. He told me his brake lights were working and there is no middle brake light. I said I just saw him stopping and only one light was working. His lady friend started saying the lights were working also. I said the middle light at the back window was a brake light and the guy tells me (and her also) that it was not a brake light. I said I just try and tell people rather than have them giving a cop to pull them over. Then the guy says he remembers me at the Tim Hortons (doughnut place) where I told another person the same thing. Really? I don't hang out there much, hey, it could have been me.

But of course I would be wrong about it when I can see the back of the car and they could not. I guess some people can not see the logic of it. The woman, as kindly as she is may not see the logic of her countrymen getting hurt because they invaded another country. "But our guys are getting rid of the Nazi's. Oh right, I forgot. And the Russian newspapers always say their troops do not shoot at civilian areas and only military targets. Funny how the cities get flattened though.